Where is the #Nats thin ice?

We are now less than 2 weeks to the official start of Spring Training.  Metaphorically speaking, every team this time of the year has that thin ice warning for the areas of their team that lacks depth and screams of danger.

The Nats have said goodbye to several key players and this Jordan Zimmermann tweet (below) from the ice is a perfect spot to bring up that Rizzo didn’t add another frontline starter to replace Zimmermann for the 2016 rotation and instead chose to go with existing team depth.  It now looks like the Nats will go with Joe Ross and Tanner Roark at the back of the rotation with AJ Cole and Taylor Jordan as 40 man depth as well as Yusmeiro Petit who can make spot starts. Lucas Giolito is not on the 40 man roster, and he could and most likely will make his debut in 2016 for the Nats. Bronson Arroyo is an intriguing addition to the Nats, and like Giolito is not on the 40 man roster.

  1. Thin Ice Warning #1 is the back of the rotation and depth and quality of starters

The next area of concern is counting on the health of Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman and their declining output.  Health is everything and both players have had their share of injuries.  This is a year that the Nats must hope that their players can be healthier and put up better numbers.

2. Thin Ice Warning #2 is the depth on the roster and in the minors in case of injuries

The bullpen will rely on Papelbon anchoring the back of the bullpen, and when the Nats traded Storen, the team left themselves without a proven closer behind Papelbon.  Papelbon’s stats with the Nats plummeted from where he was with the Phillies.  ERA went from 1.59 to 3.04 and K/9 went from 9.1 to 6.1.  The back of the Nats bullpen will rely on the youngster Felipe Rivero and free agent Shawn Kelley.

3. Thin Ice Warning #3 is the depth in the back of the bullpen

Shortstop will transition from Ian Desmond to a competition with Danny Espinosa, Stephen Drew and Trea Turner.  While we all feel great about Trea Turner, there is a cautionary tale there that Rookies take time to adjust to full-time exposure in the MLB. Byron Buxton who was the #1 prospect last year got schooled in Minnesota.  Trea Turner is the 11th rated prospect in baseball and should be a future star.  You hope Trea will look like a Rookie of the Year candidate.

4. Thin Ice Warning #4 is the production from the shortstop position

thin ice

The Nats could still make some moves going forward and the team has been proactive adding their new Medical staff to the organization. The Nats as a team at this point in the off-season look better than many others who still have roster holes.

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Questions to ask at the #Nats Rizzo Hot Stove Session

This coming Saturday, February 6, 2016 the Nationals will be hosting a Hot Stove Session with Mike Rizzo for season ticket holders with a full season plan. Each account holder gets two tickets for the event. Here are the details from the email

The Washington Nationals are excited to present you and a guest with the opportunity to attend an exclusive Hot Stove Session featuring President of Baseball Operations & General Manager Mike Rizzo and Chief Revenue & Marketing Officer Valerie Camillo. The NATS PLUS Hot Stove Session will take place in the Norfolk Southern Club at Nationals Park on Saturday, February 6 from noon – 1:30 p.m.

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Revisiting Mike Rizzo’s quotes from November + Stat projections

Below are FanGraph′s projections that we have compiled in a graph for the 2016 Nats. We took a graphic look at where FanGraphs have the Nats projected on the standard slash:

Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, Slugging %, OPS

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2016 Nationals Projections (sorted by OBP)

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Ian Desmond is still part of the #Nats future! Sign/Trade strategies!

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#Nats Sam Mondry-Cohen Presentation at the SABR Meeting

Sam Mondry-Cohen of the Nationals presented at the DC chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) on Saturday, January 30, 2016. He provided an excellent overview of how the Nationals’ analytics group has grown and some of the things he and his folks are researching as well as what MLB Advance Media (MLBAM) is doing. What follows is a laundry list of many of the topics he discussed. Continue reading

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#Nats 2016 Promotional Schedule Wish List #Giveaways

This time last year the Nats were starting their promotion where fans could win promo items by finding Teddy around the DC area, so it should be in the very near future that the new promo schedule is released.

It’s probably too late because I’m sure that the schedule has already been set, but here is what I’d like to see and what I expect to see. Continue reading

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Preview of Coming Attractions – SABR Meeting

Lots of very interesting presentations at the DC SABR meeting today. Sam Mondry-Cohen of the Nationals had the meatiest presentation. Will have an overview of his presentation within the next day. But here is a quickie post to give Ghost a night off. Continue reading

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The January 14th Lineup. What is it? #Nats

Earlier today, Daniel Murphy did an interview with Thom Loverro and Kevin Sheehan on ESPN 980 .

Loverro asked Murphy, “from the outside looking in, what do you think went wrong with the Washington Nationals last year?”

Murphy simply started his answer, “They couldn’t stay healthy…”

https://twitter.com/Nationals/status/685137488516526084

Murphy continued his answer talking about why the Nats struggled in 2015, and Murphy was correct in saying he thought the health of the team was a major factor as he talked about Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Werth and Span who all suffered through injuries.

Murphy missed a key stat by 1500% as he guesstimated that the Nats fielded the Matt Williams #1 lineup for “just over 30 games together”, and in fact it was only 2 games the entire season. We have previously referred to the 2015 #1 lineup as the  January 14th lineup.  Why did we call it the January 14th lineup you might ask?  That was the day the Nats traded for Yunel Escobar (1/14/2015) and the starting line-up was complete: Span CF, Rendon 3B, Harper RF, Ryan Zimmerman 1B, Werth LF, Desmond SS, Escobar 2B, Ramos C was what everyone hoped was going to be the Nationals 2015 Opening Day line-up, and it was not for 160 games in 2015.

That January 14th line-up first debuted on August 25 which was Game #124, and by the end of the game on August 26th we would never see them together in the same line-up again.  2 total games with this #1 line-up:

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Coincidentally, new Nats reliever Shawn Kelley faced that lineup on August 25th and pitched a perfect inning.

So what line-up did the Nats envision on January 14, 2016? That would probably be called the January 8th line-up which was when the Revere trade happened. Not to digress, it might be a good time to circle on your 2017 calendar the 6 days of (January 8, 2017 to January 14, 2017).

What could this  January 8th line-up look like against right-handed pitching? Murphy was asked in his ESPN980 interview where he thinks he will bat in the order and he gave the politically correct answer of “wherever Dusty Baker sticks me!

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The media has been giving the #Nats the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.

For those of you who are old enough to remember the stand-up comedy of Rodney Dangerfield, you know his famous line, “That’s the story of my life, I get no respect!”  and that seems like the history of the Expos and the Nationals. The Nats are easy targets as they don’t stand up for themselves generally, and the media knows that. It’s like the bullies who pick on kids that won’t fight back.

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The Gloves come off in the MASN fight! #Nats #Os

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