Real Life vs. Baseball Life; Happy New Season!

As we reflect back on the year of 2025, we hope that it was personally a great year for you and yours. On the baseball side, what started with promise — ended with just 66 wins and a slide backwards from 2024’s win total of 71 wins. The rebuild engine stalled.

Tomorrow starts a new year, both figuratively and literally. What is nice about baseball is that each new season is sort of a do-over. If only we got those chances in real life to wipe the slate clean and begin again at the starting line.

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11 years later and things are very different

We are a little over a day from turning the calendar to 2026. In the baseball offseason, time feels short when the month is January. That point marks about six weeks to the opening of Spring Training camps.

There will always be that fan who thinks winning is easy. Things were very different 11 years ago when the Washington Nationals won the NL East in 2014 and seemed to just need some tweaks to get them to the next step. The 2014 Nats roster was stacked. They had three consecutive winnings seasons, and two NL East titles in that span. But nothing is as easy as it looks on paper.

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Too Many Candidate Starters? How About Stacking Them?

Photo by Marlene Koenig for TalkNats

In the article, The Evolution of Pitching Roles, we discussed how the role of starting pitchers has changed over the years. We did a simulation by pairing 10 starters, two per game, to see the impact on starter and bullpen innings. The results indicated it could be a viable approach. Of course, the idea that a team could have 10 legitimate starters makes that a non-starter.

This article will revisit the basic idea. A thousand simulations of a 162 game season (i.e., 162,000 games) were run with the assumption of 7 available starters. The basic idea is that the starters are managed as a FIFO stack. A list of 7 pitchers is maintained, along with when they are available to pitch, assuming 4 days of rest since the last time they pitched. This restriction of 4 rest days is why this simulation is of 1000 iterations of 162 game seasons, instead of just simulating games. The previous study had 5 pairs to 2 starters, so there was not an issue with the number of days of rest.

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Posted in PItching, Point-CounterPoint, Roster | Leave a comment

A glimpse from Prospects Live just 2¼ years into the Nats’ future. What do you think?

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89 days to Opening Day; About 45 days to Spring Training

Besides the Los Angeles Dodgers, has any team done enough this offseason to fully satisfy their fanbase? The Dodgers will try to be a 3-peat champion team in 2026, and they have to pay a $169 million CBT “luxury tax” penalty from the 2025 season. That penalty is more money than the Washington Nationals spent on their entire 2025 payroll.

There are still big name players left in free agency including Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, Cody Bellinger, and several others. Will the Nats be pursuing any of them?

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Players without 1st round pedigree should be treated the same as 1st rounders in development!

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Joy To The Nats

Joy to the Nats (2025 version)

Joy to the Nats, all coaches changed!

(Okay, Doolittle stays!)

Let every fan prepare for ’26 and future,

Much patience is required,

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Waking up to a new Ford in the driveway, a Mervis diamond, and Foster grants!

First off, Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season to you and yours. Ten years ago, Santa delivered Daniel Murphy on Christmas Eve to Washington Nationals fans. Those were the good times.

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Shopping With a Full(er) Front Office and Wallet

Christmas is here. For many baseball players with no confirmed destination for 2026, the pressure builds to decide and then make personal plans for moving, home, family, and school, among other things. In spite of many substantial signings, the roster of available free agents is still sizeable. There are many talents yet in play that not only would upgrade the Nationals but would do so at positions of need and would work within a budget comparable to last year.

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Plenty of pitchers, where’s the BEEF?

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