Before you read any of this, use this article for entertainment purposes because it discusses risky gambling in a hedge against buying tickets to see your Washington Nationals.
This idea came from Twitter/X’s, Crabcakes&Football, an account that frequently gets salty about the Nats. And that account certainly isn’t alone in the growing pessimism. A discussion with constant curmudgeon, @dclandofnerds, led to an X.com thread (see below) that inspired this article.
And the discussion started when @dclandofnerds wrote, “I think 55-60 wins with MacKenzie Gore was possible. I think seeing what they are doing now, 30-35 wins is entirely possible.” That would set the modern record if the Nats won just 35 games because that would be worse than the 2024 Chicago White Sox (41-121, .253). My response was, “Put your money where your mouth is. Anyone who really feels that way should be laying at least $100,000 on the ‘Under’ at MGM. The ‘Under’ today is set at 66.5. It was at 70.5 before the Gore trade.”
To that conversation and the inspiration to write this article, Crabcakes&Football jumped in and commented, “This is low a genius way to spend money on tickets and then not feel jobbed when the team is 40 games under and playing w/ little to no effort. Like an ‘Effort Insurance’ for season ticket holders. I should tack 5 pts on it and then re-market it as such!” So a h/t to Crabcakes&Football.
So if you really were going to contemplate what Crabcakes&Football called “Emotional Insurance,” here is how that would work in a real ticket scenario What price would you be willing to spend on tickets to see the Washington Nationals? Each TalkNats season ticket in the front row of the outfield costs $38.78 with the service charge, and $45.56 for the parking. Those numbers are based on an 81-game full-season plan (actual invoice below).
Here’s some more math. If you take two seats plus parking and $40 for four beers and two hot dogs and french fries with your 30% discount as a full-season plan holder — and utilizing the $5 beers in the “happy hour“ pricing before first pitch — you can make that work. You need those four beers if you believe you have to drown your tears in the sorrow of losses. You only plan to go to 20 games a season. Your seat partners buy the other 61 games, and your total cost is $3,280 all-in with two tickets to each game, premium parking, and food and beers!
Here is how the “emotional insurance” would work with a bet. The house has a -115 edge so in order to win $3,280, you would have to bet $3,775 to win $3,282.61. But if like @dclandofnerds wrote, “I think seeing what they are doing now, 30-35 wins” is the number then that is an easy win, right? No, it’s never that easy which is why gambling is always a risk. This bet means that the Nats have to win 66-games or fewer to win the bet.
Now if they win more than 66-games, those games just cost you $7,055. But then you would be happy right? The Nats would have overachieved against your pessimism.
This all reminds me of a flashback to 2019. At least one of the 106.7 Sports Junkies radio hosts bet against the Washington Nationals in the 2019 World Series and called it an “emotional hedge.” So they said that their motivation for the bets was to profit if the Nats lost. Well, they lost their money, but won the prize when the Lerner ownership group gifted the four radio hosts their own authentic World Series rings.
Would anyone really do an “emotional insurance” bet for their season ticket package? Our example is inflated by very expensive parking plus food and drinks. Certainly you could do this for much less money. But this is a good illustration of sitting in the front row, parking in the best spot inside the stadium, and enjoying hot dogs, fries, and adult beverages, and pre-tax (gambling winnings are taxed), it could all be free if the team underperforms.
