For Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, his offseason got going with a lottery win on the №1 draft pick then a sneaky good trade for Nathaniel Lowe for first base. It seems every week he has added a new player to ratchet the Nats closer to an 80-win season on paper.
How can Rizzo get to an A+ offseason? Simple, sign Alex Bregman. If he cannot, the way to get to a B- is to add another back-end reliever and a third baseman upgrade — especially on defense.
Today, Rizzo signed Jorge López for $3 million plus incentives to shore up the back of his bullpen. The Nats DFA’d Amos Willingham to make room for Lopez on the 40-man roster.
Starting Pitchers:
- Jake Irvin (RHP)
- MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
- Trevor Williams (RHP)
- DJ Herz -or- Mitchell Parker (LHP)
- Michael Soroka (RHP)
Relievers:
- Jose A. Ferrer (LHP)
- Jorge López (RHP)
- Derek Law (RHP)
- Evan Reifert (RHP) *Rule-5
- Add four more relievers
Catcher:
- Keibert Ruiz (C)
Infielders:
- Nathaniel Lowe (1B)
- Luis García Jr. (2B)
- CJ Abrams (SS)
- Either a new acquisition, José Tena, Amed Rosario, Trey Lipscomb -or- Brady House (3B)
Outfielders:
- James Wood (LF)
- Jacob Young (CF)
- Dylan Crews (RF)
Designated Hitter:
- Josh Bell (DH)
Bench:
- Riley Adams -or- Drew Millas (C)
- Alex Call -or- Stone Garrett -or- Amed Rosario OF
- Amed Rosario IF -or- Nasim Nuñez -or- Darren Baker
- Juan Yepez -or- Andrés Chaparro -or- José Tena
Spending huge money usually translates to wins as the Dodgers and Yankees showed in 2024, but it is not always given. Barry Svrluga wrote about all of this in an article in 2023 for the Washington Post. Two months after that article, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks went to the World Series, and the biggest spenders were sent home early.
You could say that the biggest spending teams had a good rebound in 2024. What would Svrluga say today, after writing in the title of his article, “After big-money teams sputter, Nats’ payroll plan looks better and better.” The issue that we have pointed out in the past is that the $/WAR ratio favors a team to build with youthful stars and fill in with quality free agents and trades.
The only formula to winning is scoring more runs than your opponent. That is how you win actual games, and how you get there can happen in a variety of ways. The Nationals were second-to-last in 2024 in home runs. The team has added some power to the lineup. They have improved the defense. The pitching is deeper.
“We’ve talked to a lot of people about a lot of good players. We need more talent, and some veteran presence for not only the clubhouse, but to hit in the middle and lengthen our lineup.”
— Rizzo wanted to “hit the gas” as he said at the Winter Meetings
“We need more power, and need to put some crooked numbers up a little easier, and marry that with the aggressiveness on the bases. We led baseball in steals — but were bottom of the barrel in slug. And, you can never have enough good arms.”
“We feel good where we’re at, and have a fertile [farm] system with guys who will help us in 2025 and beyond, but we have to keep moving forward and hit the gas, and supplement the young core of guys we have.”
Judging the youngest team in baseball by its payroll is not a good indicator for assessing the team because top-performing pre-arb players are worth much more than their salaries. Judging the team by their projections, and how they actually perform, is how you do it.
If you don’t want to hear my words on the Nats, listen to MLB Network when they talk about the offseason. Or how’s about this from Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors:
“With Bell and Lowe in the fold, and expected improvement from CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.”
— Polishuk wrote in MLB Trade Rumors
“If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball in 2025, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.”
Again, the offseason is not over. We hope that Rizzo acquires a player who we can say he really did “hit the gas.” The glaring needs are for positive production at the third base position and the bullpen. Get it done Nats!
While Rizzo set reachable goals, his manager, Dave Martinez, had similar goals, but was clear that he needed a third base upgrade. Martinez certainly got more specific than his boss, and we’ll see what transpires.
“We’re definitely looking for corner [infield] guys, we really are. We need to fill that first base void. … Like I said, we’ve got our feelers out. We’re talking to a lot of different guys. We’ll see what transpires.”
— Martinez said at the Winter Meetings
“We’re definitely looking for some
power bats at both corner spots, maybe a DH spot. We’ll see what transpires.”
Some fans and media people seem to judge a team by big name signings and big spending. Analysts look at projected wins. The Nationals are the youngest team in MLB, and their dollar valuation will never reflect true values of these players before they hit free agency. The Nationals’ CBT payroll is now at $124.5 million estimated on a hedged outcome on Nathaniel Lowe‘s salary. The Nats were at $126.8 million on Opening Day of last year per USA Today. Of course the Nationals could still spend more even after they found out that they would take a 20 percent cut in their annual TV rights from MASN retroactive to 2024 with payouts of just $58 million per year — a sum below many small market teams.
At this point, the bullpen is in need of another proven high leverage arm. There are of course several in-house relievers to fill in the rest of the roster if Rizzo is done. Third base needs an upgrade to meet Martinez’s offseason goals, and there is a possibility that could come via free agency or the trade market. But what we don’t know is if/when Rizzo is done. He could be done or he could have a couple more moves to go. The offseason ends in 32-days, and Rizzo still could surprise us with a higher-rated offseason.
