The Washington Nationals are 12-7 (.632) since May 14, and blew a chance to win the series against the Cubs yesterday. Tonight, they have the Texas Rangers in for the weekend, and Texas has Patrick Corbin as their starter, with the Nats going with the pitcher who replaced him in the rotation, Michael Soroka.
Statistically, Corbin looks like a new pitcher on the traditional statlines with a nice looking 3.71 ERA. But as you dig into the numbers, he has been engineered to perform better. They have analytically taken the same pitcher and have pulled him quicker in games before he self-destructs. He has a better defense behind him, a better bullpen, and one of the best framing catchers in baseball in Jonah Heim versus Keibert Ruiz who is last in framing and blocking pitches in the dirt.
The little things matter. Whether Corbin’s luck lasts or not, his 4.80 FIP just tells you that he might be worse than last year because with the Nats he had a 4.41 FIP. Defense matters, and so do the other points. Corbin’s ERA has improved by those main factors. But looking at those three top factors are crucial in making your team better when you say pitching is the key. Just imagine if Nats pitchers had those factors working in their favor?
After tonight’s game, there are just 99-games remaining in the regular season. Time is flying, and we are just 18-games to the mathematical midpoint in the season. The All-Star ballots are live now, and the Nats have some players who have earned spots from James Wood to CJ Abrams, as well as pitchers MacKenzie Gore and closer Kyle Finnegan.
The Nationals played some terrible defense last night. From one game to the next, you just see inconsistency. Maybe the defense is the reason Jacob Young was brought back earlier than expected from his rehab assignment in the minor leagues. Daylen Lile was optioned back to Triple-A as the corresponding move.
“We’ve got to get ready to catch the ball. We’ve got to make plays. I always talk about the three things that have got to be constants for us to compete. Defense is one of them.“
— manager Dave Martinez said after yesterday’s game
“Hey, the [Cubs] are in first place for a reason. You see what they can do. They put the ball in play. They’ve been hitting the ball hard all year. They make good defensive plays, and their pitching keeps them in the game. We can do that as well. I’ve seen signs of it. We’ve got to do it consistently.”
You can see the recent bullpen usage here:
Here are your Nats’ WAR leaders James Wood at +2.5 with MacKenzie Gore at +2.4 followed by CJ Abrams, and Mitchell Parker.
On defense, the stats are starting to give you an idea of what this defense is all about. Paul DeJong is your OAA leader and he hasn’t played in over a month dating back to April 15. Luis Garcia Jr. has slumped this season defensively to a -6.0 already — and with CJ Abrams, they combine for -10.0 OAA. Unfortunately, Daylen Lile has found himself on this list on the negative side of the fielders and already at a -1.0. Another issue that we have discussed is the positioning of Nathaniel Lowe at first base as he is too often out of position to make a play — and OAA has his chance at success at only 61 percent which must improve. With as little as Amed Rosario has played on defense, he is at -6.0 OAA this season and the worst on the team. Per Statcast, his defense has cost the Nationals 5-runs. Is his offense good enough to make up that deficit if he plays the field? Keibert Ruiz, per Statcast, has a -7.0 OAA also. The Nationals were supposed to be better on defense. What has happened?
These are your stats leaders on BBRef. There are certainly some surprises on there — good and not so good.
“I think James Wood had the trifecta today, lining out to every part of the field.”
— Jake Irvin said after yesterday’s game
The Nats starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 4.45 and 7th worst in MLB. The reliever’s ERA sits at a 5.87 and now only the second worst in baseball in ERA.
Here is how the starters rank by ERA:
No. 5 Starter: Trevor Williams 5.69
No. 4 Starter: Michael Soroka 5.81
No. 3 Starter: Mitchell Parker 4.71
No. 2 Starter: Jake Irvin 4.02
No. 1 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 2.87
Texas Rangers vs. Washington Nationals
Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
1st Pitch: 6:45 pm EDT
TV: MASN
Radio: 106.7 The Fan radio and via the MLB app; In Spanish on DC 87.7 FM and La Pantera 100.7 FM/1220 AM. On Sirius/XM, tune to Channel 178 for the home broadcast and the road team is online only.
Line-up subject to change (without notice):
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