Are Platoon Splits Almost a Certainty for the #Nats – 2 of 2

Time for Part 2 of what we started to discuss in Are Platoon Splits Almost a Certainty for the #Nats – 1 of 2. So lets look at 2B (Starlin Castro and Luis Garcia), Catcher (Jason Castro and Yan Gomes) and CF (Victor Robles and Andrew Stevenson).

Don: Just like our previous discussion, let’s start by looking at their splits against lefty vs. right handed pitchers.

In the tables that follow there are two sets of splits. The Each-PA splits are based on who the pitcher is for each PA and should match the Baseball-Reference splits (the first two lines of the platoon splits). I have included these splits here so I could validate the results by comparing the numbers I calculated with BBREF.

The Starter splits include all the PAs in a game based on whether the starter was a righty or a lefty. For example, if the starter is a lefty and the batter faced him twice and faced two righty relievers twice, in these tables all four PAs are listed in the Starter-L line. This is different from how BBREF calculates the splits it shows for starters and relievers.  My rationale for doing this is that when you construct a lineup you are going to pick which platoon player to start based on who the starter is and the manager won’t be able to switch back and forth later in the game based on whether the reliever is a righty or a lefty.

Andrew Stevenson

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	3	2	0.500	0.667	0.500	1.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Each PA – R	81	69	0.362	0.457	0.623	1.080	25	13	8	2	2	10	22
Starter – L	5	5	0.400	0.400	0.800	1.200	2	0	2	0	0	0	1
Starter – R	79	66	0.364	0.468	0.606	1.074	24	14	6	2	2	11	21

Jason Castro

Signed with Houston. Leaving data in here for comparison purposes.

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	68	59	0.136	0.250	0.153	0.403	8	7	1	0	0	9	29
Each PA – R	300	259	0.239	0.337	0.479	0.815	62	30	17	0	15	36	92
Starter – L	35	28	0.036	0.229	0.071	0.300	1	0	1	0	0	7	15
Starter – R	333	290	0.238	0.330	0.452	0.782	69	37	17	0	15	38	106

Luis Garcia

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	35	35	0.143	0.143	0.143	0.286	5	5	0	0	0	0	13
Each PA – R	104	99	0.323	0.356	0.444	0.800	32	24	6	0	2	5	16
Starter – L	20	20	0.300	0.300	0.450	0.750	6	3	3	0	0	0	5
Starter – R	119	114	0.272	0.303	0.351	0.653	31	26	3	0	2	5	24

Starlin Castro

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	191	180	0.339	0.366	0.550	0.916	61	42	9	1	9	9	31
Each PA – R	548	516	0.246	0.277	0.397	0.675	127	83	25	4	15	22	93
Starter – L	206	192	0.292	0.325	0.495	0.820	56	37	7	4	8	10	32
Starter – R	533	504	0.262	0.291	0.415	0.705	132	88	27	1	16	21	92

Victor Robles

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	218	188	0.271	0.362	0.404	0.767	51	34	12	2	3	12	46
Each PA – R	633	567	0.236	0.295	0.390	0.685	134	86	27	3	18	34	162
Starter – L	235	204	0.240	0.315	0.368	0.683	49	33	10	2	4	9	51
Starter – R	616	551	0.247	0.312	0.403	0.715	136	87	29	3	17	37	157

Yan Gomes

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	115	96	0.271	0.374	0.521	0.895	26	15	4	1	6	16	18
Each PA – R	393	356	0.230	0.298	0.371	0.668	82	52	20	0	10	30	97
Starter – L	135	115	0.226	0.326	0.417	0.743	26	15	5	1	5	17	25
Starter – R	373	337	0.243	0.311	0.398	0.709	82	52	19	0	11	29	90

Andrew: What stands out to me immediately is that Starlin Castro has shocking reverse splits in 2020, and Luis Garcia actually hits lefty starters well and his struggles are against lefty relievers.

As we thought, Jason Castro would make a good matchup catcher with Yan Gomes. It is just finding the right matchups which is very difficult in the Nats system when pitchers like a certain catcher.  Stevo only had 8 PAs against lefty pitching and held his own for sure. Not enough to make a real assessment.

Steve: I did not realize that Luis Garcia‘s issue might be more focused on when teams brought in a lefty reliever to face him as Andrew also pointed out. That bodes well for him in the long run.

Don: I agree that Stevo’s data is limited and we need to be careful about how we interpret it (and whether we believe it) – but it is worth including.

Likewise Andrews comment about how he does against lefty relievers is pretty interesting.

I am not as convinced about Castro being a good match-up with Gomes. So let’s include Tyler Flowers as another possible match-up.

Tyler Flowers

Pitcher	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HIT	Sngl	Dbl	Tpl	HR	BB	SO
Each PA – L	123	104	0.163	0.285	0.269	0.554	17	10	4	2	1	16	44
Each PA – R	271	240	0.258	0.339	0.458	0.798	62	37	13	1	11	23	95
Starter – L	148	132	0.167	0.250	0.250	0.500	22	14	6	1	1	13	56
Starter – R	246	212	0.269	0.366	0.495	0.861	57	33	11	2	11	26	83

Steve: Crazy to see Tyler Flowers has reverse splits too in 2020.

Don: So lets looks at the the rest of the platoons. Depending on which position and who the batters are I have included two tables. One is a pure Platoon – lefty batters against righty starters; and righty batters against lefty starters. I did this by doing a 25%/75% split for lefty starters vs righty starters. The other is just splitting the time (labeled Split); each batter gets half the starts against lefties and half the starts against righties.

And for anyone comparing the slash lines to the results above, there are minor differences due to the rounding issues when I adjusted the number of PAs to match the values shown in these tables.

Let’s look at second base first.

2B, Platoon

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	642	0.287	0.320	0.456	0.777	184	129	21	10	23	32	114
Luis Garcia	R	171	164	0.274	0.304	0.348	0.652	45	37	4	0	3	7	34
Starlin Castro	L	513	478	0.291	0.326	0.494	0.819	139	92	17	10	20	25	80

2B, Split

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	653	0.274	0.300	0.401	0.701	179	126	35	2	15	25	131
Luis Garcia	ALL	342	331	0.281	0.301	0.372	0.673	93	69	19	0	4	11	74
	L	86	86	0.302	0.302	0.453	0.756	26	13	13	0	0	0	22
	R	256	245	0.273	0.301	0.343	0.644	67	56	6	0	4	11	52
Starlin Castro	ALL	342	322	0.267	0.298	0.432	0.730	86	57	16	2	11	14	57
	L	86	80	0.288	0.326	0.488	0.813	23	15	3	2	3	4	13
	R	256	242	0.260	0.289	0.413	0.702	63	42	13	0	8	10	44

Don: If we get this level of performance out of second base, I will be quite happy.

Steve: I see something special in Luis Garcia. The way Keith Law at The Athletic scouted him based on his Double-A portion in 2019 is not indicative of the kid I saw in two straight Spring Trainings and then in his MLB stint in real games in 2020.

Law wrote about Garcia’s start to his MLB career, “There’s also been a lot of weak contact and some trouble adjusting to pitchers working him soft away, whether it’s swinging-and-missing or rolling over.”  Fact is Garcia did well on soft away going oppo over and over for hits and actually batted .406 on pitches over the outer-third of the plate in the zone. He struggled chasing below the knees and on the knees inside so kind of the opposite of what Law wrote.

If Garcia can improve on laying off below the knees (2-19) and low and in/middle (2-16), I think he is going to do great with adjustments and working some walks. I think the power will come with age and he looks like a player certainly in the 700’s for an OPS. The kid did well in RISP spots batting .293.  He was the youngest player in MLB when he debuted in 2020.

 

Andrew: That is all very interesting on Garcia and his charts. Remember that until the last two weeks of the season, he was batting over .300 and went into a week-long slump which brought down his final stats.

Don: Let’s move to catcher position next – Jason Castro with Yan Gomes first.

Catcher Option 1, Platoon

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	598	521	0.234	0.321	0.420	0.741	122	71	27	2	22	65	142
Jason Castro	R	171	149	0.235	0.327	0.463	0.791	35	19	9	0	8	20	54
Yan Gomes	ALL	427	372	0.234	0.319	0.403	0.722	87	52	18	2	14	45	88
	L	256	218	0.225	0.324	0.404	0.728	49	28	9	2	9	32	47
	R	171	154	0.247	0.310	0.403	0.713	38	24	9	0	5	13	41

Catcher Option 1, Split

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	596	0.215	0.311	0.388	0.699	128	74	31	1	23	77	196
Jason Castro	ALL	342	292	0.188	0.307	0.363	0.670	55	28	15	0	12	46	118
	L	86	69	0.029	0.233	0.058	0.291	2	0	2	0	0	17	37
	R	256	223	0.238	0.332	0.457	0.789	53	28	13	0	12	29	81
Yan Gomes	ALL	342	304	0.240	0.316	0.411	0.727	73	46	16	1	11	31	78
	L	86	73	0.233	0.326	0.425	0.750	17	10	3	1	3	11	16
	R	256	231	0.242	0.313	0.407	0.719	56	36	13	0	8	20	62

Don: I don’t see much benefit here to a traditional platoon with Castro. And simply splitting time is not good.

Steve:’ I just want to see improved catcher defense to make our pitchers look better. Until we get robo ump, the 4 years of going from Matt Wieters forward really exposed the need for better catcher’s defense in regards to framing/unframing and throwing out baserunners. Gomes looks to be the primary catcher. Who is acquired as the other catcher is a key. I’m not as concerned with splits because we know Gomes is catching Corbin and most likely Max and Stras will want one catcher to be their guy.

Andrew: the issue I’ve always seen with Nats’ catchers is that they seem to follow pitcher assignments and that makes offensive matchups to an opposing pitcher difficult.

Don: After seeing the numbers with Castro, I am more interested in whether we can get better performance with Flowers.

Catcher Option 2, Split

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	602	0.241	0.327	0.419	0.746	145	88	30	4	23	66	197
Tyler Flowers	ALL	342	298	0.242	0.339	0.426	0.765	72	42	14	3	12	35	119
	L	86	77	0.169	0.256	0.273	0.529	13	8	3	1	1	8	33
	R	256	221	0.267	0.367	0.480	0.847	59	34	11	2	11	27	86
Yan Gomes	ALL	342	304	0.240	0.316	0.411	0.727	73	46	16	1	11	31	78
	L	86	73	0.233	0.326	0.425	0.750	17	10	3	1	3	11	16
	R	256	231	0.242	0.313	0.407	0.719	56	36	13	0	8	20	62

Don: Since both Gomes and Flowers are right-handed, the Platoon strategy makes no sense. The straight split of starts is better than the Gomes/Castro combination.

Steve: Correct Don. Catcher platoons just don’t work in the Nats system. Davey likes his pitchers to pick their catchers and you play on the day your pitcher is scheduled to pitch.

Andrew: I agree Don. This will be matchups with who the Nats are pitching I would think.

Don: And here are the numbers if we have Castillo for about 60 games and Gomes for the other 102 games. I hope Rizzo goes after Flowers. If not, maybe we need to have Castillo take all the games against lefties. But as you said Andrew, pitcher preferences complicate such a strategy.

Catcher Option 3, 60/102 Split

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	615	0.224	0.295	0.408	0.703	138	80	30	1	27	58	176
Welington Castillo	All	253	231	0.199	0.265	0.411	0.676	46	23	10	0	13	19	78
	L	63	58	0.224	0.270	0.448	0.718	13	6	4	0	3	3	17
	R	190	173	0.191	0.263	0.399	0.662	33	17	6	0	10	16	61
Yan Gomes	All	431	384	0.240	0.313	0.406	0.719	92	57	20	1	14	39	98
	L	108	92	0.228	0.324	0.424	0.748	21	12	4	1	4	14	20
	R	323	292	0.243	0.310	0.401	0.710	71	45	16	0	10	25	78

Don: And now lets look at centerfield. The Platoon here is slightly different. I don’t think we would be giving all the starts against righties to Stevenson. So the Platoon table gives all the lefty starts to Robles and then does a one-third/two-thirds against righties to Stevenson and Robles.

CF,  Platoon 

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	597	0.275	0.352	0.434	0.786	164	102	36	7	16	52	169
Andrew Stevenson	R	171	143	0.364	0.468	0.587	1.055	52	30	13	4	4	24	45
Victor Robles	ALL	513	454	0.247	0.314	0.385	0.699	112	72	23	3	12	28	124
	L	171	148	0.243	0.316	0.358	0.674	36	24	7	1	3	7	37
	R	342	306	0.248	0.313	0.399	0.712	76	48	16	2	9	21	87

CF, Split

Batter	Starter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Combined	L&R	684	604	0.310	0.382	0.515	0.896	187	93	69	8	14	54	169
Andrew Stevenson	ALL	342	300	0.373	0.450	0.643	1.094	112	45	53	6	6	36	85
	L	86	86	0.395	0.395	0.791	1.186	34	0	34	0	0	0	17
	R	256	214	0.364	0.469	0.584	1.053	78	45	19	6	6	36	68
Victor Robles	ALL	342	304	0.247	0.313	0.388	0.701	75	48	16	2	8	18	84
	L	86	75	0.240	0.314	0.360	0.674	18	12	4	1	1	3	19
	R	256	229	0.249	0.313	0.397	0.710	57	36	12	1	7	15	65

Don: Frankly, I am not putting much stock in these numbers given that they are based mostly on Stevenson’s great run at the end of the 2020 season. If that is really what Stevenson is, these numbers are very encouraging.

Andrew: Stevo put up Hall of Fame numbers for 2 weeks. That is great if he can be anywhere close to a .300 BA.  I’m sure some smart matchups can come from this to get Stevo some regular ABs and Victor Robles some rest days.

Steve: Smart matchups is how this lineup can evolve and improve. On Opening Day, do you play Stevo against Jacob deGrom or go with Robles? That “matchup” test will come early if the schedule stays “as is” and the Mets and Nats square off on Opening Day. Stevo is 3-7 with 2 home runs against JdG and slashing .429/.500/1.429/1.929. Obviously not sustainable — but certainly part of the concept of matchups if you trust what you saw as the sample sizes usually are never large for matchup analysis. Robles is not awful against JdG, he bats .250 against him with a .774 OPS. Tough call.

Don: That wraps up this segment. Some great discussion points.