UPDATED: Meet Bud Black as a #Nats managerial finalist

Posted on October 24, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

There is no secret formula to finding a winning manager.  Even 3-time Giants World Series champion manager Bruce Bochy was considered a poor manager in his 1st managerial stint during his 12 year history with the San Diego Padres although Bochy had one very successful year managing a Padres team of Tony Gwynn and Kevin Brown. When the Padres and Bochy parted ways in 2006 after a combined career .494 winning percentage, Bochy was replaced by World Series champ pitching coach Bud Black.

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Postseason strategies are different. They just are.

Posted on October 24, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

The clutch closer again makes the difference in the playoffs. Whether it was Luke Gregerson for Houston or Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers or Wade Davis for the Royals or Jeurys Familia for the Mets these closers made every save and not just 9th inning saves but also taking on some situations before the 9th inning. Not every closer throws 97 smoke, but none of these closers showed any signs of folding. Each one of these closers were also called on in the 8th inning to put out a smoldering flame.  You saw it last night with Wade Davis after Ryan Madson blew a 2 run lead in the 8th that Ned Yost inserted his closer with 2 out and a man on 1st. In the 9th inning after a lengthy rain delay, Davis emerged to save the 9th and wasn’t overly sharp and really had to save himself in a 1 run game and did.  That’s how a closer does it sometimes living on the edge of disaster to get your heart thumping and they seem to pull it out when the odds are short.  Davis had men on 2nd and 3rd and no out and got out of his own jam.

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Source: Breaking: Black/Baker are finalists! More to the story on release of training staff + MASN

Posted on October 23, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

On the same day that Matt Williams and staff was released, we are being told that the members of the training staff like John Philbin who was not under contract for 2016 was also sent away with no answer on his future along with head trainer Lee Kuntz who had been with the Nats since 2007 and Steve Gober the assistant trainer who has been with the organization since the start and actually came from the Expos.  We are being told they will all not be back with the team. There is still no resolution with contracted team doctors like Wiemi Douoguih who is an Orthopaedic Surgeon and appears he will be replaced for next season with a new medical team.

As we look around it might only be Mike “Wally” Wallace who runs the clubhouse and his likeable clubhouse assistants who might be returning with the players.

Our source said that the WaPo article that came out last weekend about the training staff only tells part of the story, and a major issue goes back to last year with Jayson Werth’s shoulder that was bothering him near the end of the 2014 season and through the playoffs when Jayson only went 1-17 while playing with the hurt shoulder.  Jayson worked on rehabbing the shoulder after the playoffs and when that didn’t work he opted for the surgery which did not happen until January 2015 and our sources tell us his discontent for the training staff started there on his rehab and “rushing” him back too soon from the surgery.  Whether you can tie the training staff not returning to Jayson’s rehab could just be a coincidence as this training staff has been criticized before for misdiagnosis and too many core muscle injuries and the preventative types of injuries to hamstring pulls. Our source tells us to expect a new training staff and a new medical group with much input from Jayson Werth.

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Breaking News: Mattingly Released as the Dodgers Manager

Posted on October 22, 2015 by DonH

Discuss if he should be considered for the Nats job here. Please continue to comment on Sabremetrics – Are We Focused on the Wrong Kinds of Metrics. End of post.

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Sabremetrics – Are We Focused on the Wrong Kinds of Metrics

Posted on October 22, 2015 by DonH

I like analytics. I’ve made my living as what is now-a-days called a data scientist. But it bothers me when lots of folks quote all these different stats and metrics without really understanding how they are calculated, what they mean and what their limitations here.

In a recent post, 222 questioned why I did not like means (I am paraphrasing 222’s here, so my apologies to 222 if this is a bit off) when I gave ERA and WHIP as two metrics that are means that I did not think were particular good in evaluating relievers. Continue reading →

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Scouts: The old school tool that has been a part of baseball forever.

Posted on October 21, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

The best seats in the house to watch a great pitcher is down low near the screen in the center. You get to see what the batter, the catcher and the ump see which can’t really be seen on TV.  If you have the chance to sit in those seats even in the Minors, do it.  The break on a curveball is a thing of beauty and the tumbling of a circle change and splitter are a sight to behold.

In many ballparks those premium seats were always reserved for the grizzled scouts who Scoutswere lifers in the business.  The scouts did the work out of the public eye and almost in anonymity with no glory and low pay, but they live for it.  As those seats by the netting became too valuable for revenue, the teams started to move the scouts out of those seats.

These scouts see what few see, and the great scouts find the diamonds in the rough.  Sure, there wasn’t a scout with a brain that thought Bryce Harper wasn’t a future star, but how many teams for a variety of reasons passed on the “northerner” Mike Trout who slipped to the 25th pick of the Angels.  Click: Bryce Harper & Mike Trout Scouting Reports

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The Bullpen. Who is in, who is out.

Posted on October 21, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

The bullpen was like reliving the good, the bad, and the ugly.  It seemed when the situation was Low Lev the bullpen was nails.  Clippard and Blevins were both traded in the off-season and Rafael Soriano departed for Free Agency.  There were going to be 3 spots to be replaced then Stammen suffered a season ending injury to his flexor tendon.  Aaron Barrett was a model of inconsistency and then he was lost to Tommy John surgery.

The bullpen looked like a MASH unit at times and many Minor Leaguers were added to the 40 man roster and got call-ups, and it was Felipe Rivero who made the biggest impression.  Initial impressions on Rafael Martin went from positive to negative quickly and he was returned to where he came from and the same for Matt Grace and Abel De Los Santos although all 3 would return in September and Rafael Martin was impressive.

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Bryce Harper knows what this team needs. Who would you get?

Posted on October 20, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

After the 2015 season ended, Bryce Harper said what needed to be said on his way to the airport, and we posted this quote (below) and it got lost among the big news of that day which was the departure of Matt Williams.  It needs to be repeated and taken seriously.  When Bryce Harper talks, people listen!

Bryce set a franchise record with 124 Walks in a season and that is a good thing and a bad thing in terms of impact.  Teams would often pitch around Bryce because the batter after him in the lineup was not feared enough to challenge the other team to reconsider pitching to Bryce.  At a .460 OBP Bryce was on base 46 out of every 100 plate appearances and to put that it in perspective, Bryce had 654 PAs in 2015 and scored 118 runs. Do the math, Bryce was on base well over 300 times and that doesn’t include reaching on fielder’s choice and errors.  Bryce was stranded at least 182 times.   That is too often!

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4 Score and 10 Years ago Ted Lerner was born. Happy Birthday! #Nats #TalkNats

Posted on October 19, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

Yes, 90 years ago on October 15, 1925, Theodore Lerner was born.  Happy Belated Birthday Mr. Lerner.  We had all hoped that your 90th birthday present was going to be a World Series trophy and it was not meant to be.

We also believe that Mr. Lerner wants to leave a legacy for Washington DC well past his 100th birthday, and he could do that by making Bryce Harper the wealthiest athlete in sports history with a 15 year $450 million contract with additional option years.

Washington DC was devoid of baseball for over Two Score and 3 years  before the return of the Washington Nationals to the nation’s capital and in 2018 the city will host it’s first All Star game in almost 50 years.

We can only hope Frank Howard is the Grand Marshall for the festivities and do it right.  Thank you again Mr. Lerner for what you have built that will last for generations.

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The QO (Qualified Offer) & The Off-Season Calendar including MASN Lawsuit

Posted on October 18, 2015 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

After the World Series, the off-season calendar officially begins.  Below is the MLB calendar and below that is the awards schedule, some more Nats specific dates and a discussion of the QO status, the MASN dispute, the managerial search, and a Scott Boras interview.

  • November: 5 days after the World Series ends sets the deadline for teams to make their QO’s (Qualified Offer) to pending free agents and this is optional for teams to offer (see below)
  • November 9-12: GM’s meetings are a month before the Winter Meetings  (Boca Raton, Florida)
  • November: 12 days after World Series ends sets the deadline for Free Agents to accept their QO’s (see below)
  • November 13-19: There is no specific dates for the roster shuffle and non-tender cuts; however, teams make room to add potential Rule 5 eligible players to the 40 man roster and cut other players to make room and sometimes early trades are made
  • November 20: Rule 5 draft reserve lists submitted
  • December 7-10: Winter Meetings (Nashville, Tennessee) This is now a televised event and is getting more dramatic each year.
  • December 10: Rule 5 draft
  • January 12: Salary arbitration filings are made but does not guarantee it will lead to a formal arbitration hearing as players can sign any time leading up to the arbitration hearing
  • January 15:  This is the day set for any player filing for salary arbitration to formally submit their demand amount and the team will submit their offer amount. Should the 2 sides actually go to the arbitration hearing in February, the arbitrator can only choose 1 of the submitted amounts as there is no meeting in the middle once the arbitration begins. Generally the 2 sides negotiate their own resolution prior to the formal arbitration.
  • February 1st-21st: These are tentative dates reserved for salary arbitration hearings if they are needed for any players who choose that route like Jerry Blevins in 2015.

As we get closer to each date above, we will have dedicated stories for each.

Throughout November the BBWAA releases the Award Winners in the ROY, MOY, Cy Young and MVP voting.  This is what the ballot looks like: http://bbwaa.com/14-nl-mvp/  Many Nats will receive votes like Max Scherzer in the Cy Young however we only expect 1 winner and that is Bryce Harper as MVP.  There are other awards such as the Gold Glove and Silver Sluggers that aren’t part of the BBWAA voting.

Nats specific dates include the Nationals Winterfest at the DC Convention Center on
December 12-13 and is the first year of this new 2-day format and it’s now held in December instead of January like prior years.  What is most interesting about the timing is that Winterfest begins 2 days after the Winter Meetings end. If the Nats sign any Free Agents or make some trades before or during the Winter Meetings, the players could be available at the Winterfest!

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