While the Washington Nationals might not figure into an NL East title next year, the teams that sought to compete for supremacy through spending over the ‘tax cap’ didn’t even make it to the baseball’s Final Four this year, despite spending in the Top-4. Yes, the Mets never made the postseason, and the Phillies exited quickly in their first round.
And this offseason will put the Phillies in a tough spot as they will be losing several key pieces as it looks like as free agency is about to shake up their team. The same will happen to the Mets, and to a lesser extent with the Braves, Nats, and Marlins.
Let’s start off by saying the 2026 MLB Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold is $244 million, and the Mets will be way over again in 2026, and the Phillies might be over the threshold once again. The Braves are rumored to be looking to lower payroll after their disappointing 2025 season as they finished with a losing record.
The Phillies
The Phillies could be at $231 million if options are declined by Harrison Bader who holds a mutual option, and for Jose Alvarado who is on a team option. That $231 million number assumes that all arb-eligible players are retained, and Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez head to free agency. And the team won’t know the full health of Zack Wheeler who had thoracic outlet surgery. He is signed through 2027 at $42 million a season.
The Phillies could get some salary relief after 2026 for both Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker as they combine for $38 million of salary. The bad news is that 2026 is the final year of team control for Jesus Luzardo, Alec Bohm, and Matt Strahm. But again, that’s a lot more that payroll will drop with them added to the $38 million for Castellanos and Walker to make it about $60 million potentially dropping off. Add back in more arb-salary increases though. The Phillies will get big salary relief after 2026 — but then they have even more holes to fill as their starting rotation becomes a huge question mark for 2027 and beyond. On top of that, Bryce Harper will turn 34 next year and they pay him through the 2031 season.
They had once counted on top prospect Andrew Painter who came off of TJ surgery and had a rough entry back into game action. He is still ranked as their top prospect. They have Aidan Miller who is a smaller sized shortstop who knows how to get on-base and hit homers. He finished up his season in Triple-A for eight games and should be up in 2026. Not sure how they fit him in if Alec Bohm isn’t traded. But that’s for the Phillies to figure out. The Phillies have Bader’s replacement if they give Justin Crawford a chance in the outfield. He is Carl Crawford‘s son and has elite speed like his father. He put up good Triple-A numbers.
The Mets
The Mets just fell apart in the second have and barely finished with a winning record at 83-79. The rumors say that first baseman Pete Alonso will head to free agency, and things didn’t go well in his negotiations last year with the Mets. Good news for him is that he won’t be collared with a qualifying offer penalty this offseason. The bad news for the Mets will be replacing his production.
The Mets called up two of their top prospects in Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong for their starting rotation. Both started off great then they both found out how tough it is to pitch in the big leagues. Beyond that, the Mets farm system isn’t too good. They have outfielder Carson Benge who should compete for a spot in Spring Training.
The Mets will shed a big salary as Starling Marte will head to free agency. The Mets have to rebuild their bullpen too as several players will be gone via free agency or injury. Most notably is Reed Garrett who was lost to an elbow injury and Ryne Stanek heads to free agency. Will A.J. Minter make it back from his injury? Then the team will lose Ryan Helsley and Gregory Soto to free agency too.
If I was GM of the Mets, I would move Juan Soto to first base where the Yankees had him practicing last year. That would open up a chance to spend tons of money and go after Kyle Tucker for the outfield. As they say, it’s nice to have money — and that’s what I would do. Mets — you’re welcome.
The Braves
The Braves were crushed by injuries, and could never claw back. Their farm system is in bad shape, and no real help will come from their minor league kids. They get a little bit of salary relief as Marcell Ozuna along with Raisel Iglesias. They might be happy that Ozuna departs, but who will be their closer for 2026?
On top of that, they will be in their last season with Chris Sale, and Spencer Strider is more of a No. 2 pitcher after his injuries. They just have several question marks and the end is in sight for those cheap contracts for Ronald Acuna Jr. as his deal expires after the 2028 season, and Ozzie Albies‘ deal is over after the 2027 season.
Reality hits quickly, and long-time manager, Brian Snitker, won’t be managing their team next year. With the weak farm, will they spend in free agency in plug their holes?
The Marlins
If the Marlins had money to spend, they could be the best team in the division. They seem to always be able to internally produce pitching and their former ace, Sandy Alcantara, seemed to find his arm in the second half of the season.
Like the Nats, the Marlins have plenty of holes to fill and catcher might be their biggest need. They probably decline the option on Avisail Garcia. They don’t have any free agents otherwise. A full year of Alcantara along with some progress from Jakob Marsee and some of their other young players could make them a contender if they were to spend in free agency. They probably won’t.
The Future of the NL East
Timing is everything, and the NL East could once again be the NL Least depending on how the Phillies, Mets, and Braves go in the next few years. The Nats have their own issues, and have holes they need to fill. The Nats and Marlins are young, The rest of the NL East is getting old.
Time will tell. The next CBA and a national TV deal could change everything and even the playing field. By the time that happens, there will probably be divisional realignment and the Marlins won’t be in the same division. So really, who knows as predicting the future is far from 20/20.
