A Big Fish In A Small Simon Pond. Caution: Don’t rely too much on Spring Training stats

The name is Pond, Simon Pond. There once was a big fish in a small pond, and his name is Simon Pond. He was a teenage baseball star in his Canadian region and was drafted by the Montreal Expos in 1994. After 10 years of persevering in the Minors, Pond got an invite to the Toronto Blue Jays big league camp in 2004 as a non-roster invitee, and after a very good Spring Training where Pond batted .338 with 4 HRs and a team best 23 hits, he was the talk of camp. As Spring Training finished, Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi traded a promising youngster named Jayson Werth to the Dodgers for Jason Frasor on March 29, 2004 to make room for Pond on the Blue Jays Opening Day roster. All congratulations to Pond for doing what he needed to do to make the roster. He worked hard when many players would have quit years earlier. For Jayson Werth, it was a painful reminder of going from top-prospect to a player who was nearing a crossroads in his career.

“I knew something was happening,” said Jayson Werth about the trade. “There were some trade rumors and people would call from home and say they read stuff on the internet.”

Making the Opening Day roster, Pond was cautiously optimistic with his words back in 2004 as he said, “I’m real happy about it, but I still have a lot to do. I don’t know how to say it properly. It’s a rung on the ladder, a step along the way.”

Unfortunately for Pond, his Major League career would span only 16 games in just that 2004 season. Pond floundered in his brief time in the Majors as he batted .163. Pond’s one big highlight was his only career HR which came off of a Boston Red Sox pitcher named Bronson Arroyo. That is coincidental as we fast forward twelve years later, and that is the same Bronson Arroyo in Nationals’ camp here in Viera, Florida as he is trying to secure a roster spot for Opening Day 2016.

The cautionary tale is that relying on Spring Training stats for players is a “slippery slope” for talent evaluators and fans, and it works both ways for great stats and poor stats. Pond had a very good Spring Training in 2004, and Werth had a poor Spring Training in 2004. Werth went on to have a very good 2004 Major League season with the Dodgers tallying a .825 OPS, and Pond ended up with a .515 OPS.

“Offensive consistency was the big difference between Pond and Werth,” said Toronto manager Carlos Tosca after the trade in 2004.

They say hindsight is 20/20. Did we mention Jayson Werth had two 20/20 seasons in his career, and Pond didn’t even reach 20 games played in his entire MLB career. What if? This is not a knock on Pond as he persevered and legitimately made it to the Major Leagues, but Werth went on to being a star player.

gerry team

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UPDATED: Big pitching debuts today in Jupiter 3/4/16 #Nats

Gio Gonzalez gets the start today and will then hand the ball to Bronson Arroyo and Lucas Giolito. This gives us the opportunity to see the new mechanics of Gio and then to see what Arroyo has going on in his first real action returning from Tommy John.  Lucas Giolito will get to face mostly non-starters by the time he takes the ball in the 5th inning.

The Nats travel roster has:

  1. Brendan Ryan SS
  2. Trea Turner 2B
  3. Loan Logan Schafer CF
  4. Clint Robinson RF
  5. Michael A. Taylor LF
  6. Tyler Moore 1B
  7. Stephen Drew 3B
  8. Jose Lobaton C
  9. Brian Goodwin DH

There’s Gio and Gio Grande behind him with the bat and looking like that other #44 Adam Dunn!  Gio and Giolito are both scheduled to pitch today. Yes, that is Papelbon in the golf cart playing “Don’t Stop Believing” by Journey. Papelbon needs to get some music from his doppelganger and fellow Mississippi native Trent Harmon who is a finalist on the final season of American Idol.

Photo for TalkNats.com by Donna Klinger

Photo for TalkNats.com by Donna Klinger

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Will Dusty Baker look at this job as ‘2 & Done’? #Nats

There is that saying ‘One and Done’ as it pertains to college athletes and also for athletes approaching retirement, and it’s no secret that Dusty Baker is signed for 2 years and could be thinking short-term ‘Two and Done’.

Bob Nightengale of the USA Today wrote, “[Dusty] signed a two-year, $4 million contract with the Nationals, and doesn’t know if he’ll want another…All he knows is that after being out of baseball the last two years, this is perfect, the opportunity of a lifetime. He knows he can win big in Washington. He can become the first manager to win a World Series in Washington, D.C., since 1924. He can become the first African-American manager ever inducted into Baseball’s Hall of Fame. “I don’t know how I would have felt if I had never gotten this chance,’’ Baker tells USA TODAY Sports.” Continue reading

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Updated: The #Nats Spring Training Opener vs. the #Mets 3/3/2016

The long awaited 1st home game in Spring Training for the Nats in Viera at Spacecoast Stadium!

1. CF Ben Revere
2. 2B Daniel Murphy
3. RF Bryce Harper
4. 3B Anthony Rendon
5. 1B Clint Robinson
6. SS Danny Espinosa
7. LF Reed Johnson
8. C Jhonatan Solano
9. DH Jason Martinson

RHP Max Scherzer

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Photos for TalkNats by Luis Albisu

The game began with a standing ovation for Dusty Baker. Here is the 1st pitch of the game by Max Scherzer which was a strike!

luis 1st pitch of Spring Training

Photos for TalkNats by Luis Albisu

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Gio Gonzalez’s locker room neighbor is Jonathan Papelbon. Quotes of Zen.

A zen-like silence came across the Nats clubhouse as there were only 2 players left. Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Papelbon have lockers next to each other in the Space Coast Stadium clubhouse, and while they were teammates for 2 months last year, they never really got to know each other.  That all changed this year from the 1st day of Spring Training, the pair struck up a bond, that Gio is happy to talk about and really wants people to know about the much misunderstood Jonathan Papelbon. It certainly sounds like a ‘bromance’ as Gio talks about Pap. They are often seen together and hanging out these days, and while some might think they are an ‘odd couple’ it’s the yin to the yang.
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The Prospects of Tomorrow are here Today in Viera #Nats Giolito, Turner, Robles, Stevenson

Nats camp in Viera is in full swing and all the Top Prospects have arrived on the Minor League side.  In the coming weeks many of these players will get to see some action as fill-ins alongside the Major League players but for now Victor Robles, Andrew Stevenson, Reynaldo Lopez, Eric Fedde, Jakson Reetz, Drew Ward, Osvaldo Abreu, Rhett Wiseman, Rafael Bautista, Anderson Franco and Edwin Lora and others will be mostly on the other side of the Space Coast Stadium facility where the Minor Leaguers practice.

There have been a few Victor Robles sightings, and he is the Nats #3 prospect as rated by Baseball America and #1 outfield prospect for the Nats.

Gerry Victor Robles

Photo by Gerry Gleckel

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The #Nats Starting Rotation with Bronson Arroyo in the Mix and the Mike Maddux Effect

Flashback to the GM Meetings in November in Boca Raton, Florida and Mike Rizzo was asked about the starting rotation for the 2016 season and Riz said, “I’m happy sliding Tanner and Joe in the rotation. With that said, you can never have enough good starting pitching.”  Fast forward over 3 months, and the Nats have not publicly changed the 5 probable starters; however, Rizzo added Bronson Arroyo as he was signed on January 26, 2016 to a Minor League deal with an opt-out prior to final rosters being set.

The biggest “add” this off-season could be Mike Maddux. The pitching coach has already tweaked some of the most minute mechanics on almost every pitcher in camp. Early on he saw a wrist hitch with Treinen on his changeup and changed his grip. With Gio it was turning his head to eye his target, with Gott it was keeping his head steady, and with Cole it was the arm angle. With all the Nats pitchers, Maddux talks about “pitching with a purpose” and “don’t waste pitches  you don’t have” and “it must look like a strike”. Maybe these players have heard it before from another pitching coach or maybe Maddux just has that  je ne sais quoi that keeps these pitchers focused on the target.

If we take Rizzo’s suggestion on sliding Tanner Roark and Joe Ross into the rotation, this is what the starters will look like:

Starters 2016

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Lucas Giolito is like “Belvedere Vodka—Top Shelf” says former GM Steve Phillips

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips was in Viera Florida yesterday on assignment for MLB Network Radio Sirius/XM for his show ‘The Leadoff Spot’ which airs weekdays from 7am-10am EST . While he was there, Phillips was able to watch part of the intra-squad Nats scrimmage.

Photo for TalkNats.com by Donna Klinger

Photo for TalkNats.com by Donna Klinger

As the new pitcher entered the game, Phillips just saw the large framed pitcher warming up wearing the #44 jersey. Phillips got bright-eyed against the sunshine when he saw 44’s warm-up fastball.

Phillips claimed that at first, he did not know that the pitcher with the #44 jersey warming up, was Lucas Giolito. It would be best to hear how animated Steve Phillips was in describing what he saw, and you will need a subscription the MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM to hear it on-demand, but here is a transcription of the morning discussion between Steve Phillips and his co-host Todd Hollandsworth in the 8:30am segment as they discussed the large framed pitcher warming up as Phillips said, “Huhhhhhh, who is this guy?” Then he saw his name—GIOLITO. “WOOOOOOOOOOW”, Phillips exclaimed.

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Draft Orders & Draft Dollars are set! #Nats pick #28, #29, #58 and #94 + Today’s Scrimmage

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Is Ian Desmond greedy, an idiot of historic proportions, or… what?

I’ve posted thousands of comments over the years. This is my first article.

Much of the commentary following Ian Desmond’s reported deal with the Rangers depicts him as motivated primarily, or solely, by “greed”. Others depict him and his advisers as the village idiots for turning down not one but two deals better than the one year and $8 million reported Sunday. Some even see it as a little of both: a classic comeuppance from the baseball gods for acting as a greedy fool. It’s easy to jump on those bandwagons; the narratives are well-worn and it requires little thought to simply toss them about as some sort of truism.

Is the explanation really that simple, or is there nuance to this? I submit that this is not simple at all… which does require a discussion that is not simplistic… or short.

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