When will the Washington Nationals pick in the next MLB Draft?
Odds on favorite is 10th, with a small chance at 11 and an infinitesimally smaller chance they pick at #12. The draft lottery is at 5:30pm ET on Tuesday, December 5.
The table above was created from running one million simulations of a draft using my understanding of the rules in place:
- The Nationals can pick no better than 10th per the rules as a lottery pick in the previous draft
- Once the top 6 teams are picked, the remaining picks are ordered based on record.
- Three teams (Mets, Padres, Yankees) due to CBT violations have a 10 pick penalty if they don’t get one of the top ten picks in the lottery.
Some details about the layout of the table above:
- The three WC teams are listed as possibly getting into the top 18 (but not top 6) based on the 6 pick penalty for the Mets, Padres and Yankees.
- 19+ is a placeholder for those picks pushed back 10 spots due to the 6 pick penalty as well as for the WC teams that did not move up due to the 10 pick penalty.
- Seems pretty clear that it is very likely that the Nats pick 10.
One caveat based on the 0.00% value for that Nats picking 12th. There were 7 cases in the million simulations where that occurred. These seven cases all involved teams getting higher picks than the 6 teams who had one of the sixth worst records. That is, none of the teams with one of the sixth worse record got a top 6 pick. In all seven of these cases.
The caveat is a wrinkle that I could not find a definitive answer for. What about the Cardinals who got the 6th slot (the Nats were 5th)? Do they pick ahead of the Nationals if they don’t get a top 6 pick and 6 teams with worse records do. I think they do. But if not, just add 7/1,000,000 (.0007%) cases to the .10% for picking 11th. 😊
So here’s to an almost certain #10 pick for the Nats in the 2024 draft.
