Nationals Draft/Development – Is It As Bad As You Think It Is?

The conventual wisdom is that the Nationals have been historically awful, compared to other teams, when it comes to developing players. That is really a two part question:

1. Do they draft badly?
2. Do they fail in properly teaching their draftees what they need to know?

Lets discuss and compare the Nats to four other teams: two teams that are recognized as elite: the Dodgers and the Rays; a team that is on the cusp between very good and average – the Cardinals; and a team that is flat-out awful – the Phillies.

The Baseball Almanac site was used to get the data for the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 drafts.

Don: The first thing that occurs to me to look at is how many draft picks have they had in the past few years compared to the rest of MLB. Let’s look at the first three rounds for 2013 thru 2017 – draftees from those years should have made it to the big leagues by now.

So here are the counts by round. The compensation and competitive balance picks are shown at the end of the round – but are listed with that round number.

The main point that jumps out at me is how the Nationals have fewer picks compared to the rest of MLB. The Nats had 15 picks over that period, tied with 5 other teams. And three teams only had 14. And they are tied with 2 other team with the fewest number of first round picks.

Steve: Before you go any further, I think we need to exclude the top 10 picks from any further analysis. Picks that are that high should certainly make it.

Don: Instead of excluding them, how about I categorize them differently in any future queries. So, along those lines, here is how many top 10 picks teams have had in the 5 year period from 2013 thru 2017:

• 4 Top Ten Picks: Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies
• 3 Top Ten Picks: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins
• 2 Top Ten Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays
• 1 Top Ten Pick: Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
• No Top Ten Picks: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals

These results certainly suggest that having lots of high picks is not a sure-fire way to improve yourself. Of the 7 teams with 3 or 4 top ten picks in the 5 year period we are looking at, only one, the Astros, have had a lot of success.

Looking more closely at this, all 4 of the Astros top 10 picks were also top 5. The Rockies and the Twins were the only teams with 2 top 5 picks

Steve: Yes, the Phillies have been awful. The Twins have at least made the playoffs, and Houston won the World Series. The Rockies — what can you say with their owner Monfort. That period of 2013-2017 also shows how the Cubs got both Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber in consecutive years as Top-10 picks and won themselves a World Series quickly. The Braves most impactful 1st round pick was their 41st overall in the 1st round of 2015: Austin Riley.

The hindsight look at who made it and who flopped is often interesting. Many times it is a bad injury that derails prospect’s career. If you go back to Riley’s 1st round draft class, you will find 2 superstars and that was Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler. They are the only two players along with Andrew Benintendi who have over a combined 9.0 career WAR at this point in time from that 2015 draft.  Dansby Swanson and Riley will get there, but so far that 2015 draft is not looking good. By the way, the Nats forfeited their 1st round pick that year when they signed a guy named Max Scherzer. I think that worked out well.

Don: I noticed that none of the teams we agreed to look at in more detail, I decided to look at top 10 picks have done. That provided a list of 50 players. I decided to list those players who met any of the following criteria:

• No MLB games (in the 2018-2021 Game Day data I have downloaded)
• Less than 20 MLB games for pitchers
• Less than 100 MLB games for non-pitchers

And note the standard disclaimer on the downloaded Game Day data – it does have minor differences from, for example, Baseball-Reference. The additional wrinkle is that I had to match using the player name instead of their MLB ID number.

Regardless of those disclaimers, I have to admit that I was surprised that 19 (almost 40%) of those players were included.

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Year 2013
1	Houston Astros	Mark Appel	RHP	Stanford
7	Boston Red Sox	Trey Ball	LHP	New Castle High School
Year 2014
1	Houston Astros	Brady Aiken	P	Cathedral Catholic High School
2	Miami Marlins	Tyler Kolek	P	Shepherd High School
5	Minnesota Twins	Nick Gordon	SS	Olympia High School	66
6	Seattle Mariners	Alex Jackson	C	Rancho Bernardo High School	57
Year 2015
6	Minnesota Twins	Tyler Jay	P	University of Illinois
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Griffin High School
Year 2016
1	Philadelphia Phillies	Mickey Moniak	OF	La Costa Canyon High School	24
4	Colorado Rockies	Riley Pint	P	St. Thomas Aquinas High School
5	Milwaukee Brewers	Corey Ray	CF	University of Louisville	1
7	Miami Marlins	Braxton Garrett	LHP	Florence High School	10
9	Detroit Tigers	Matt Manning	RHP	Sheldon High School	18
Year 2017
1	Minnesota Twins	Royce Lewis	SS	JSerra High School
2	Cincinnati Reds	Hunter Greene	RHP/SS	Notre Dame High School
3	San Diego Padres	MacKenzie Gore	LHP	Whiteville High School
4	Tampa Bay Rays	Brendan McKay	LHP	Louisville	17
6	Oakland Athletics	Austin Beck	OF	North Davidson High School
10	Los Angeles Angels	Jo Adell	OF	Ballard High School	69

For the 2017 draft we perhaps need to give these guys (especially those drafted out of HS) more time. This also perhaps provides perspective regarding dismissing Stras and Harper as gimme’s. We have 3 guys that were the number 1 pick who have yet to see an MLB game.

Steve: Stras and Harper were can’t miss. The Nats got lucky because not every 1st overall pick is a lock. Another note is the high school kids on the 2015 and forward chart still have a shot but some as we’ve seen are already busts.

Mickey Moniak anyone?

Don: Yes, luck is involved. But so is skill. Most every #1 pick is a lock to at least make MLB if not becoming a star. And you also need to be able to sign them. And since 2009 when Rizzo became GM (or acting GM) every single player drafted up until the 2017 draft has gotten to MLB.

Steve: Anyone will tell you Stras and Harper were locks as stars. Few have been destined for greatness like that since Alex Rodriguez in 1993. Rendon not as much because of his health and that turned out huge. But I wouldn’t brag about any 1st round pick afterwards by Rizzo unless the White Sox want to thank him for gift wrapping Lucas Giolito. The fact that Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom, and Seth Romero all have played MLB ball is nothing to brag about when you consider that Fedde’s career Fangraph’s WAR is 1.1 over 5 seasons, Kieboom’s is a NEGATIVE -1.4 with 414 plate appearances, and Romero -0.1.

Don: Before looking at the players, I decided to first look at the positions the 5 teams drafted. Here are those results.

Position	Los Angeles Dodgers	Philadelphia Phillies	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Rays	Washington Nationals	Total
1B				1/5.3%		1/1.1%
2B		1/6.3%		1/5.3%		2/2.2%
3B	1/5.3%		1/5.0%	1/5.3%	1/6.7%	4/4.4%
C	2/10.5%	1/6.3%		2/10.5%	1/6.7%	6/6.7%
CF		1/6.3%		2/10.5%		3/3.4%
OF	3/15.8%	3/18.8%	4/20.0%	2/10.5%	3/20.0%	15/16.9%
P	12/63.2%	5/31.3%	13/65.0%	8/42.1%	8/53.3%	46/51.7%
SS	1/5.3%	5/31.3%	2/10.0%	2/10.5%	2/13.3%	12/13.5%
Total	19	16	20	19	15	89

Don: I find it interesting that the Nationals penchant for drafting pitchers is close to, but exceeded, by both the Dodgers and Cardinals – especially given how many more picks those teams had (19 and 20) vs. just 15 for the Nats. With more picks, you think they would diversify more. But then again, maybe the point is the focusing on pitching in the draft is a good strategy all other things being equal (e.g., no sure-fire position players).

Steve: The great teams know that it starts with pitching.

Don: Now let’s look at the teams we agreed to include in the comparison. Lets look at each year separately. I decided to include the two years the Nationals did not have picks (2013 and 2015) so we could see how the other teams did and if the picks lost were costly losses. And note the same disclaimer regarding the number of games as mentioned earlier.

Year=2013

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Round 1
16	Philadelphia Phillies	J.P. Crawford	SS	Lakewood High School	353
18	Los Angeles Dodgers	Chris Anderson	RHP	Jacksonville
19	St. Louis Cardinals	Marco Gonzales	P	Gonzaga	96
21	Tampa Bay Rays	Nick Ciuffo	C	Lexington High School	21
28	St. Louis Cardinals	Rob Kaminsky	LHP	St. Joseph Regional High School	5
29	Tampa Bay Rays	Ryne Stanek	RHP	Arkansas	202
Round 2
53	Philadelphia Phillies	Andrew Knapp	C	Cal	243
56	Los Angeles Dodgers	Tom Windle	LHP	Minnesota
57	St. Louis Cardinals	Oscar Mercado	SS	Gaither High School	214
60	Tampa Bay Rays	Riley Unroe	SS	Desert Ridge High School
68	Washington Nationals	Jake Johansen	RHP	Dallas Baptist
Round 3
89	Philadelphia Phillies	Cord Sandberg	CF	Manatee High School
92	Los Angeles Dodgers	Brandon Dixon	3B	Arizona	177
93	St. Louis Cardinals	Mike Mayers	RHP	Mississippi	165
96	Philadelphia Phillies	Jan Hernandez	SS	Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy
97	Tampa Bay Rays	Thomas Milone	CF	Masuk High School
105	Washington Nationals	Drew Ward	3B	Leedey High School

Don: The Nationals did not have a first round pick due to the signing of Rafael Soriano. While that was not a good move overall, the impact on the draft, given the Nats would have picked last, probably did not hurt too much. Crawford is the only player from that list that I would have liked to have. But he was not going to be available even if the Nats had a first rounder.

And didn’t Jake Johansen have injury issues? Have to admit that all I remember about him was that he never got far.

Steve: Johansen was a fastball pitcher with 4th round projections. A complete bust. His college career wasn’t even good. I understand taking a chance on him, but not in the 2nd round.

Year=2014

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Round 1
7	Philadelphia Phillies	Aaron Nola	RHP	Louisiana State University	113
18	Washington Nationals	Erick Fedde	P	UNLV	73
20	Tampa Bay Rays	Casey Gillaspie	1B	Wichita State University	.
22	Los Angeles Dodgers	Grant Holmes	P	Conway High School	.
27	St. Louis Cardinals	Luke Weaver	P	Florida State University	66
34	St. Louis Cardinals	Jack Flaherty	P	Harvard-Westlake High School	92
Round 2
47	Philadelphia Phillies	Matt Imhof	P	Cal Poly	.
57	Washington Nationals	Andrew Suarez	P	University of Miami	55
60	Tampa Bay Rays	Cameron Varga	P	Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy	.
62	Los Angeles Dodgers	Alex Verdugo	OF	Sahuaro High School	333
68	St. Louis Cardinals	Ronnie Williams	P	American Senior High School	.
71	St. Louis Cardinals	Andrew Morales	P	University of California-Irvine	.
72	Tampa Bay Rays	Brent Honeywell Jr.	RHP	Walters State Community College	.
Round 3
81	Philadelphia Phillies	Aaron Brown	OF	Pepperdone University	.
93	Washington Nationals	Jakson Reetz	C	Norris High School	2
96	Tampa Bay Rays	Brock Burke	LHP	Evergreen High School	6
98	Los Angeles Dodgers	John Richy	P	UNLV	.
104	St. Louis Cardinals	Trevor Megill	RHP	Loyola Marymount University	28

Don: Have to say that it would have been great if Rizzo had known to pick Flaherty or Weaver instead of Fedde. But it is worth noting that the Dodgers picked a pitcher before either of these two who has yet to appear in an MLB game. And even the Cardinals, picked Weaver first.

In addition, Suarez did not sign with the Nats. He was drafted the following year by the Giants.

Steve: Right, Suarez didn’t sign. I think instead of looking at games played, you have to look at impact.

Year=2015

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Round 1
10	Philadelphia Phillies	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Griffin High School	.
13	Tampa Bay Rays	Garrett Whitley	OF	Niskayuna High School	.
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Juan Hillman	OF	Olympia High School	.
24	Los Angeles Dodgers	Walker Buehler	P	Vanderbilt University	106
35	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kyle Funkhouser	RHP	University of Louisville	70
39	St. Louis Cardinals	Jake Woodford	RHP	Plant High School	38
Round 2
48	Philadelphia Phillies	Scott Kingery	2B	University of Arizona	309
52	Tampa Bay Rays	Chris Betts	C	Wilson High School	.
58	Washington Nationals	Andrew Stevenson	OF	Louisiana State University	198
66	St. Louis Cardinals	Bryce Denton	3B	Ravenwood High School	.
67	Los Angeles Dodgers	Mitch Hansen	OF	Plano High School	.
69	Washington Nationals	Blake Perkins	OF	Verrado High School	.
74	Los Angeles Dodgers	Josh Sborz	RHP	University of Virginia	74
Round 3
83	Philadelphia Phillies	Luke Williams	SS	Dana Hills High School	53
87	Tampa Bay Rays	Brandon Lowe	2B	University of Maryland	353
100	St. Louis Cardinals	Harrison Bader	OF	University of Florida	403
101	Los Angeles Dodgers	Philip Pfeifer	P	Vanderbilt University	.
103	Washington Nationals	Rhett Wiseman	OF	Vanderbilt University	.
105	St. Louis Cardinals	Jordan Hicks	P	Cypress Creek High School	112

Don: The Nationals did not have a first rounder in 2015 due to signing Scherzer. As you said above Steve, that worked out. And even if they had a pick, the Dodgers grabbed Buehler a few picks before the Nats.

And too bad the Nats did not pick Lowe in Stevenson’s slot, given that he was local, before the Rays were able to grab him. Or Bader that the Cardinals grabbed later.

Steve: No issues there. Max Scherzer might have been the greatest free agent signing ever when the Nats got him.

Year=2016

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Round 1
1	Philadelphia Phillies	Mickey Moniak	OF	La Costa Canyon High School	24
13	Tampa Bay Rays	Josh Lowe	3B	Pope High School	1
20	Los Angeles Dodgers	Gavin Lux	SS	Indian Trail Academy	146
23	St. Louis Cardinals	Delvin Perez	SS	PJ Education School High School
28	Washington Nationals	Carter Kieboom	SS	Walton High School	105
29	Washington Nationals	Dane Dunning	RHP	University of Florida	35
32	Los Angeles Dodgers	Will Smith	C	University of Louisville	241
33	St. Louis Cardinals	Dylan Carlson	OF	Elk Grove High School	187
34	St. Louis Cardinals	Dakota Hudson	RHP	Mississippi State University	71
36	Los Angeles Dodgers	Jordan Sheffield	RHP	Vanderbilt University	30
Round 2
42	Philadelphia Phillies	Kevin Gowdy	P	Santa Barbara High School
53	Tampa Bay Rays	Ryan Boldt	CF	University of Nebraska
58	Washington Nationals	Sheldon Neuse	SS	University of Oklahoma	49
65	Los Angeles Dodgers	Mitch White	RHP	Santa Clara University	23
70	St. Louis Cardinals	Connor Jones	P	University of Virginia
77	Tampa Bay Rays	Jake Fraley	OF	Louisiana State University	95
Round 3
78	Philadelphia Phillies	Cole Stobbe	SS	Millard West High School
90	Tampa Bay Rays	Austin Franklin	P	Paxson School High School
94	Washington Nationals	Jesus Luzardo	LHP	Stoneman Douglas High School	46
101	Los Angeles Dodgers	Dustin May	RHP	Northwest High School	40
106	St. Louis Cardinals	Zac Gallen	RHP	University of North Carolina	50

Don: A couple names that might have been better picks than CK. But nothing that is something that one could suspect should have been obvious.

Steve: That was a deep draft though.

Year=2017

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School	Games
Round 1
4	Tampa Bay Rays	Brendan McKay	LHP	Louisville	20
8	Philadelphia Phillies	Adam Haseley	OF	Virginia	108
23	Los Angeles Dodgers	Jeren Kendall	OF	Vanderbilt	.
25	Washington Nationals	Seth Romero	LHP	University of Houston	3
31	Tampa Bay Rays	Drew Rasmussen	RHP	Oregon State	48
Round 2
40	Tampa Bay Rays	Michael Mercado	RHP	Westview High School	.
45	Philadelphia Phillies	Spencer Howard	RHP	Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo	25
62	Los Angeles Dodgers	Morgan Cooper	RHP	Texas	.
65	Washington Nationals	Wil Crowe	RHP	South Carolina	32
Round 3
79	Tampa Bay Rays	Taylor Walls	SS	Florida State University	49
83	Philadelphia Phillies	Connor Seabold	RHP	California State University Fullerton	1
94	St. Louis Cardinals	Scott Hurst	OF	California State University Fullerton	4
100	Los Angeles Dodgers	Connor Wong	C	University of Houston	5
103	Washington Nationals	Nick Raquet	LHP	College of William and Mary	.

Don: So we end with the draft that brought us Seth Romero, Will Crowe (a piece in the Josh Bell trade) and Nick Raquet (who likely we won’t be seeing at Nats Park anytime soon, if at all.

Again, no obvious choices that were better than the gamble on Romero. Rizzo probably counted on him growing up; it appears that so far he hasn’t. Time will tell.

Steve: Phillies drafts have been horrible.

In Summary

Don: When I suggested this Point-CounterPoint article, I thought I would conclude that the Nats were probably average; not nearly as bad as the TalkNats folks seem to think. Clearly they are below average; but I still don’t think they are nearly as bad as many here think.

Seems like the Cardinals are actually better than the Dodgers and the Nats are not nearly as bad as the Phillies – but not in the same league as the Rays, Cardinals or Dodgers. But, as I just said, not nearly as bad as most of the TN folks think. I suspect a large part of the Nats issue is, IMO, few picks; and very few high picks.

Steve: To me, it is impact of the draft picks. If you exclude Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper from the Nats history of drafts under Rizzo, he has one guy who has made an All-Star impact for the Nats and that is Anthony Rendon. The rest were used in trades and developed by other teams like Giolito and Robbie Ray, and other than that you got dozens of busts. I wouldn’t brag about Fedde or Stevenson or Kieboom or Romero because if you add up their cumulative WAR it is a net negative.

Don: Which reinforces my point about fewer picks and higher picks. The Nats hit on all of their truly top picks. Ask the Astros about their #1 picks. Regardless I think the upgrades to the development staff is a very good thing and I am hoping the Nationals are competitive again very soon.

So now I have to ask you Steve, do you still think that the Nats have been bottom of the barrel: or just below average?

Steve: The Astros hit on 5 picks in the first round: Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa but they also hit on George Springer (11th overall), and look at their 2015 pick of Kyle Tucker, he is now playing well, and there was Lance McCullers Jr. That is just part of it. Also, while the Astros drafted Brady Aiken at 1 overall, they backed out due to injury concerns and his pick compensation got them Bregman. When the Nats drafted Aaron Crow and didn’t sign him they used the pick compensation to get Drew Storen at #10 overall. But beyond 1st round picks. Houston got Dallas Keuchel who was a 7th round pick, and that goes to the overall point that the Astros had swings and misses but more overall success than the Nats in the draft and they scored big with Keuchel in the 7th round.

Clearly Mark Appel in 2013 was the Astros biggest FAIL. But they hit on many other players and enough to have a dominant run even with the cheating. They didn’t deserve a WS championship but they built a good team.

The draft is so much more than the 1st round. The Nats record of drafting and developing players beyond Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon has been horrific. That is going back 16 years and including players who were drafted while Jim Bowden was GM. If there is any good news going through this exercise, the Phillies have been the worst team in drafting and developing over the past decade. The good news for the Nats is I have optimism that De Jon Watson will turn this around. I think Brady House is going to be a star, and I have similar hopes for Cade Cavalli. This is a new era in Nationals’ baseball.