Some players from the World Championship roster will not return for 2020
The “Hot Stove” fully lit up the second after Daniel Hudson struck out Michael Brantley for the final out of the World Series. Prior to that there were 28 teams that were early entries into the offseason, and now it is official. Free agents have been declared, and options are being picked up and turned down. Opt-outs have been used in a variety of ways. The exclusive period is still open for teams to negotiate with their own free agents, and then qualified offers will be issued before free agents can officially sign with other teams.
Free Agents: 3B Anthony Rendon, 2B Howie Kendrick, 2B Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B Brian Dozier, 1B Ryan Zimmerman (option declined), 1B Matt Adams (option declined), C Yan Gomes (option declined), OF Gerardo Parra, RHP Stephen Strasburg (opted-out), RHP Jeremy Hellickson, RHP Daniel Hudson, RHP Fernando Rodney, LHP Jonny Venters
| Pitchers | B/T | Contract Status | CBT Salary |
| Patrick Corbin | L/L | $ 23,333,333 | |
| Sean Doolittle | L/L | $ 6,500,000 | |
| Roenis Elias | L/L | Arb 2 | $ 1,900,000 |
| Erick Fedde | R/R | Minimum | $ 575,000 |
| Koda Glover | R/R | ||
| Javy Guerra | R/R | Arb 1 | $ 950,000 |
| Joe Ross | R/R | Arb 2 | $ 1,500,000 |
| Anibal Sanchez | R/R | $ 9,500,000 | |
| Max Scherzer | R/R | $ 28,689,376 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | R/R | Free agent | |
| Hunter Strickland | R/R | Arb 3 | |
| Wander Suero | R/R | Minimum | $ 575,000 |
| Austin Voth | R/R | Minimum | $ 575,000 |
| Free Agent Starter | $ 30,000,000 | ||
| Daniel Hudson | R/R | Free agent | |
| Tanner Rainey | $ 600,000 | ||
| Backend Bullpen Arm | $ 7,500,000 | ||
| Catchers | B/T | ||
| Tres Barrera | R/R | ||
| Raudy Read | R/R | ||
| Kurt Suzuki | R/R | $ 5,000,000 | |
| Free Agent | $ 7,500,000 | ||
| Infielders | B/T | ||
| Wilmer Difo | S/R | ||
| Carter Kieboom | R/R | Minimum | $ 575,000 |
| Jake Noll | R/R | ||
| Adrian Sanchez | R/R | ||
| Trea Turner | R/R | Arb 2 | $ 8,000,000 |
| Anthony Rendon | R/R | ||
| Free Agent 1B | $ 4,500,000 | ||
| Free Agent 3B | $ 32,000,000 | ||
| Utility infielder | $ 3,500,000 | ||
| Utility infielder | $ 3,500,000 | ||
| Outfielders | B/T | ||
| Adam Eaton | L/L | $ 9,500,000 | |
| Victor Robles | R/R | Minimum | $ 600,000 |
| Juan Soto | L/L | Minimum | $ 600,000 |
| Andrew Stevenson | L/L | Minimum | $ 575,000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | R/R | ||
| Fifth outfielder | $ 1,500,000 | ||
| 40 man cost est | $ 2,250,000 | ||
| Player benefits est. | $ 15,000,000 | ||
| Total | $ 206,797,709 |
That is an estimated payroll for the 2020 Nationals. Keep in mind that for 2020, the roster size is at 26 players. My assumption is an 8 man bullpen and a 5 man bench. There should be enough money there for several players like Rendon and Strasburg, but due to the AAV calculations you see the need for deferrals to bring the numbers in line.
If Rendon and Strasburg do not come to terms shortly, they will both be locked under a $17.8 million qualified offer which they would both decline. This was the first year the QO declined. The amount is determined from an average of the top 125 salaries of the previous season. QOs are due five days after the World Series. Players then have up to ten days to accept or reject.
The competitive balance tax threshold for 2020 is $208 million unless the MLB and MLBPA adjust for the 26 player roster. There looks to be a reasonable opportunity to get under the tax threshold in 2020 and stay competitive in the upcoming season.
