The #Nats WAR chart for 2017; Fangraphs 2018 projections!

Tableau graph created by “Tyler Babip”

For anyone wanting to visually see the Fangraphs final WAR for 2017 for the Washington Nationals position players, we have layered the stats into a Tableau graph. By clicking on this link, you can see the original graph. Once you have loaded that link, you can then click on the player’s names on the right side and they will be highlighted by each layer.

Here is the link for the Nationals 2018 page on Fangraphs.

Fangraphs 2018 projections (position players)

These numbers will change as soon as the Nationals make changes to the 40-man roster.

Fangraphs 2018 pitching projections for the Nationals

If you add the WAR together on those 2 charts, the Nationals projected fWAR for 2018 currently is 44.7. The Astros are projected #1 in WAR for 2018 followed by the Dodgers, Cubs, Indians and Washington Nationals.

Fangraphs top 10 team projections for 2018 (pre-season)


Last week, TalkNats presented the first projections by Fangraphs for the 2018 season. They of course pick the Washington Nationals in 1st place in the NL East with 92 wins and trailing only the Dodgers in the entire National League. The Dodgers, who they project at 94 wins, were already tweaked from last week as they were projected at 93 wins. Here are the Nationals player WAR projections from Fangraphs for 2018. No surprise here, Fangraphs estimates Bryce Harper leading the Nats position players in WAR at +5.8. Fangraphs has Max Scherzer leading the Nats pitchers in WAR at +5.1.

What we don’t understand at this point is that the Nationals have a lower team WAR than the Cubs; however, in the standings the Cubs are projected with 91 wins. The Cubs are behind the Nationals who are shown at 92 wins for 2018.

Fangraphs 2018 projected team standings


If anyone can let us know why the team projected WAR and wins don’t have a direct correlation, please let us know. It is also important to mention again that these numbers will change as 40-man roster moves are made.  Players fWAR estimates are changed dependent on projected usage.

When you look at player like Jake Arrieta, he has been assigned a +2.8 fWAR for 2018. If Arrieta is signed by the Nationals for example and replaced the Erick Fedde, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth combined production of +1.7 then you could expect the Nationals team WAR to increase by a net of +1.1. That is just a hypothetical example.

Another oddity on here is that Fangraphs has shown Jacob Turner on the Nationals while we do not see him on the 40-man roster. He is shown as a 0.00 WAR which will not impact the numbers overall. It appears that Jacob Turner is not even Nationals property.

EDITOR NOTES: We received a response from Fangraphs on the inquiries on the differences between wins in their projected 2018 standings and WAR as well as their inclusion of Jacob Turner in their depth charts:

Hi Steve, Our actual win projections are calculated using BaseRuns and not WAR.  BaseRuns ends up doing a better job of modeling team runs, so it’s going to look a little different than WAR.

I’ll check with our depth chart team on Jacob Turner.  We’ll be making a lot of changes to these in the next couple weeks.


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