The QO (Qualified Offer) & The Off-Season Calendar including MASN Lawsuit

After the World Series, the off-season calendar officially begins.  Below is the MLB calendar and below that is the awards schedule, some more Nats specific dates and a discussion of the QO status, the MASN dispute, the managerial search, and a Scott Boras interview.

  • November: 5 days after the World Series ends sets the deadline for teams to make their QO’s (Qualified Offer) to pending free agents and this is optional for teams to offer (see below)
  • November 9-12: GM’s meetings are a month before the Winter Meetings  (Boca Raton, Florida)
  • November: 12 days after World Series ends sets the deadline for Free Agents to accept their QO’s (see below)
  • November 13-19: There is no specific dates for the roster shuffle and non-tender cuts; however, teams make room to add potential Rule 5 eligible players to the 40 man roster and cut other players to make room and sometimes early trades are made
  • November 20: Rule 5 draft reserve lists submitted
  • December 7-10: Winter Meetings (Nashville, Tennessee) This is now a televised event and is getting more dramatic each year.
  • December 10: Rule 5 draft
  • January 12: Salary arbitration filings are made but does not guarantee it will lead to a formal arbitration hearing as players can sign any time leading up to the arbitration hearing
  • January 15:  This is the day set for any player filing for salary arbitration to formally submit their demand amount and the team will submit their offer amount. Should the 2 sides actually go to the arbitration hearing in February, the arbitrator can only choose 1 of the submitted amounts as there is no meeting in the middle once the arbitration begins. Generally the 2 sides negotiate their own resolution prior to the formal arbitration.
  • February 1st-21st: These are tentative dates reserved for salary arbitration hearings if they are needed for any players who choose that route like Jerry Blevins in 2015.

As we get closer to each date above, we will have dedicated stories for each.

Throughout November the BBWAA releases the Award Winners in the ROY, MOY, Cy Young and MVP voting.  This is what the ballot looks like: http://bbwaa.com/14-nl-mvp/  Many Nats will receive votes like Max Scherzer in the Cy Young however we only expect 1 winner and that is Bryce Harper as MVP.  There are other awards such as the Gold Glove and Silver Sluggers that aren’t part of the BBWAA voting.

Nats specific dates include the Nationals Winterfest at the DC Convention Center on
December 12-13 and is the first year of this new 2-day format and it’s now held in December instead of January like prior years.  What is most interesting about the timing is that Winterfest begins 2 days after the Winter Meetings end. If the Nats sign any Free Agents or make some trades before or during the Winter Meetings, the players could be available at the Winterfest!

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Maybe, just maybe, Rizzo and Storen should kiss and make-up

Everybody knows that the Nats Bullpen was awful this year, right? Well according to quite a few of the standard pitching metrics, they ranked pretty highly in all of MLB in quite a few of the categories. In comments on previous posts the idea of coming up with our own metric for relievers was briefly mentioned. That is a work in progress and there will be a post for that in the not too distant future (and apologies for the teaser).

While doing the research on some ideas for a new reliever metric, something hit me like a ton of bricks. The 2015 version of Drew Storen actually compares quite well with guys who are considered to be elite closers. Continue reading

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POLL: Who should be the next Nats manager & Don Mattingly rumors in LA and DC

Below is 2 polls about the next Nats manager.  Let us know your thoughts.  One name that has joined the rumor mill is Don Mattingly.

Don Mattingly has avoided the firing squad in LA for years now, and his time could be up shortly which would allow GM Farhan Zaidi the ability to hire his own manager.

Rizzo and Mattingly know each other well and Mattingly’s agent Ray Schulte happens to live in Potomac, MD which probably won’t factor into it except for the ease of negotiating.  It would be a risk for Rizzo to bring in a Manager like Mattingly who has been called an underachiever; however, Donnie Baseball also has his supporters who say the GM’s in LA have created a dysfunctional group of players who are selfish and can’t play as a team. The Dodgers have had a team of multiple All Stars who faltered each time into the playoffs and the Dodger’s $300+ million in 2015 payroll were underachievers as their entire back of their rotation faltered and several position players went into deep slumps.

While Theriot missed what Money Ball is in his tweet, the rest is humorous:

Our questions are, what’s your opinion of Mattingly and some of the other names floated? Two Polls below!
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Meet Ron Wotus before his Monday interview

As we reported last week, Ron Wotus would be interviewed by Rizzo and that should happen on Monday as we reported earlier today.  If you have been reading our posts on the search for the new Manager, you read the quote from Mike Rizzo who is looking for a tactical manager who can communicate and be a leader.

Here is the quote from Rizzo  about his candidates, “As we go through our laundry list of things that we look for in our [new] manager, the perfect leader of the ballclub on the field with leadership qualities and knowledge of x’s and o’s are all important. Communication in the clubhouse and communication within the coaching staff is vital. Experience is always helpful.  It always adds a layer of expertise to anybody’s résumé.”

Ron Wotus is such a good communicator that he speaks so often you would think he is the Manager.  He is regularly on a radio show on KNBR and here he is with Chris Russo for a long interview during the World Series of 2014:  VIDEO OF RON WOTUS Hopefully that gives you an idea of that charismatic side of Ron Wotus.  How many bench coaches can you name that have radio shows and give regular interviews?

As far as being a tactician with the x’s and o’s,  that is more difficult to say about a long-term bench coach who hasn’t managed in the Majors, only the Minors, and Rizzo will have to figure out those questions and his leadership abilities. Wotus does have the impressive résumé as he has 3 World Series rings and lots of other baseball accomplishments.  Wotus has apprenticed under one of the best—Bruce Bochy.  Wotus was a Manager in the Minor Leagues for the Giants from from 1991 to 1997 and his W/L record was 554-412 (.574 win %) and he won the Manager of the Year award twice.  Wotus became the Giants 3rd base coach under Dusty Baker in 1998 and was promoted to bench coach in 1999 where he has served over 2,750 games to present.

WOTUS rhymes with POTUS and that is a Washington DC thing and if Ronny gets the job you can expect some fun memes.  How coincidental is it that the last great communicator in Washington was named Ronny and he was the 40th POTUS and coincidentally Ron Wotus had 40 Plate Appearances in his career on games started by RHPs.  Wotus also had 2 terms in the Major Leagues lasting just 2 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Reagan did the same as a 2 term POTUS.  Also like Reagan, Wotus has spent most of his time in California and the East Coast.  What airport do you think Wotus will be flying into? Thinking that might be Reagan National.

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Scherzer Gets A New Job

Max Scherzer has joined FOX Sports for the ALCS on their TV crew for the pre-game and post-game shows.  Just a temp job that was too tempting for Max to pass up.  Scherzer will not be in Toronto or Kansas City as Fox1 Sports actually broadcasts out of the Westwood studios in Los Angeles, and the ALCS crew is hosted by Kevin Burkhardt and Scherzer will join former players turned analysts: Raul Ibanez, Pete Rose and Frank Thomas.

Max Scherzer and his wife Erica May-Scherzer had just moved back to their winter residence in Arizona not even 2 weeks ago where they were taking time off from baseball and then when FOX came calling Scherzer was intrigued.

Scherzer said, “This will be fun getting to work with the FOX crew.”.   If you remember, Scherzer was a natural on camera in post-game interviews and the few he did in Spring Training, and he did some excellent interviews on the MLB Network.

“We’re fired up to have Max join us,” said Fox Sports President of Production John Entz. “He’s an incredible player, and [Max] will be able to have unique insight into the teams we’re covering during the postseason. We couldn’t be more thrilled.”

FS1 is a national 24-hour multi-sport cable channel launched by FOX Sports on August 17, 2013.  So far Fox has received mixed reviews on their broadcasts, and this was from last week’s Division Series coverage:

http://thefanaticsview.com/baseball/pete-rose-raul-ibanez-laugh-to-tears-for-a-full-2-minutes/

In their pre-game prep this afternoon Fox1 host Kevin Burkhardt tweeted this, “Max Scherzer was in our meeting for 4 minutes before Pete Rose started crushing him on “finally getting some complete games.” Too funny!”

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The Interview(s)

Mike Rizzo is an interview machine.  He is not leaving a stone unturned this time in his search for a Manager.  Bud Black is meeting with Mike Rizzo today, and he met with Dusty Baker yesterday and Phil Nevin earlier in the week and has talked by phone with several potential candidates.   Alex Cora is another of the popular names out there and Ron Wotus reportedly will be interviewed as part of the list of 20 others that we compiled last week and our suggestion on how the interview should including playing chess. 

 (AP Photo/Alex Brandon All rights reserved)

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon All rights reserved)

The Nats Managers job has to be one of the more attractive jobs out there among the few job openings that exist as the other jobs don’t have as much to offer in terms of a winning record or a clubhouse with a previous Cy Young ace who threw 2 no-hitters this year and an outfielder who should be the reigning NL MVP.

Update: 3:45PM:  Ron Wotus who is the current bench coach for the San Francisco Giants is scheduled to interview with Mike Rizzo on Monday.  Read out Oct 8th story on Wotus and comments we made prior.

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Getting Defensive about the Nats Defense

Yesterday the team defense subject came up in the comments section. TheRealJohnC aka JCCfromDC reminded us again that defense is important in comparing the Nats and Mets in defense. The Mets team defense was much better than the Nats. How is Mike Rizzo going to fix this problem because it’s an issue that can’t be swept under the rug.  The eye test can tell you how poor Jayson Werth has been manning leftfield.  Yunel Escobar was a problem at 3rd base, Desi a problem at shortstop, and the Nats 1st base defense was not good also.

Baseball Prospectus tracks  a stat called Defense Efficiency, and the Nats have moved backwards from .706 (15th) in 2014 to .700 (T-20th) in 2015 and -15.0 in Team UZR which is 21st overall.  In BABIP against Nats pitching, this is trending in the wrong direction: .296 in 2013, .298 in 2014 and  .304 in 2015.  Remember what BABIP is, this is Batting Average on Balls that stay In-Play.  The BABIP got worse and that’s considering Scherzer threw 2 no-hitters and a 1-hitter which helped that BABIP number.

Werth moved up to 5th to last in LF UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) at a -7.3 but consider that Hanley Ramirez who was last in UZR will be moving to 1st base next year.  Also consider that Clint Robinson playing 269 innings in the OF had a -6.0 UZR, and the Nats were worse than every team except the Reds in the NL in LF defense.  Keep in mind UZR is a cumulative stat and if CRob played 700+ innings he would have competed for that negative distinction with Hanley.   Then you have Yunel Escobar at a -7.7 and 6th from the bottom in 3rd base UZR.  Ian Desmond ranked 12th from the bottom in shortstop UZR at -3.7 due to his error rate and Desi was actually 8th best in shortstop range rating which means only 7 other shortstops do a better job getting to balls than Desi.  Since BABIP doesn’t count errors, Desi isn’t the problem in that stat although he is factored in to the decline in Defensive Efficiency. Ryan Zimmerman ranked 24th in 1st Base UZR at a -2.2 and that was a surprising stat, but the plantar fasciitis most likely had it’s effect but RZim was an improvement over LaRoche who was last in UZR last year at -5.0.   BABIP over a full season takes out much of the luck factor and is affected most by poor range and defensive positioning and also the quality of the batted balls; however, FanGraphs ranks the Nats pitchers 10th best in the Majors in hard hit balls at 28.1%.

How much better would the Nats pitchers perform with better defense behind them?  That is the question to ponder.

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Advice from Jim Bowden to the Nats: GO FOR IT

Jim Bowden writes about the Nats on what he thinks the team should do in 2016 and beyond.  A good off-season piece, and there is little to disagree with.  We would add to this piece is that the MASN regional TV money that has not been resolved could be the much needed cashflow to allow Mike Rizzo to take some chances on a top Free Agent. We hear this Jordan Zimmermann guy is really good!

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=11569

The article is partially hidden unless you are an ESPN Insider and here is how Jim Bowden summarized what he would do,My suggestion: Go for it. This is still a good team. The window to compete for a championship is still open, and to not go for it would be a mistake. Ownership has continually given GM Mike Rizzo’s regime the resources to build a championship club, and it shouldn’t stop now. Put the right skipper in place and give it one more season, and if it doesn’t work out, then the Nationals retool, get younger and lower payroll. This 2015 season didn’t go as planned, but many of the pieces are in place for them to be as good in 2016 as they were expected to be this season.”

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About Those Braves…

Watching the Mets in the Division Series is like _________________ (fill in the blank.) Please remember this is a PG-rated site. But, there is one slight silver lining: It isn’t watching the Braves.

https://twitter.com/IngramRadio/status/650814356016492544/photo/1
The Braves, who had won the 2013 Division title handily turned around and basically fell apart last August/September. Typically the manager gets shown the door after such a chute job. Rather than follow the typical protocol, the Braves cleaned house starting with the General Manager. Frank Wren’s replacement was John Hart, a respected baseball veteran. Faced with an under-achieving lineup and a farm system sorely lacking in talent the choice was made to stock the farm by selling the stable. What was needed was young pitching and lots of it. The winter purge was impressive. Gone was Justin Upton, his overpaid brother Melvin, Jason Heyward, and improbably Craig Kimbrel. Giving away the arguably best closer in baseball was the price the Braves paid for an egregious contract to Melvin Upton. All of this would ostensibly, in time, produce a serious competitor in time for the 2017 season.

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The 4 N’s: Nats News -n- Notes

This was the big news of the day about new positions for Randy Knorr, Matt LeCroy and Bobby Henley as well as Brian Daubach.  On the surface this looks very promising.

The other big news is that Bryce Harper won the Player of the Year award from Baseball America. (h/t to Section222)  http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2015-major-league-player-year-bryce-harper-2/

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