Game #148 AJ Cole gets the start; Rich Hill for the Dodgers

Posted on September 16, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

To think, today’s Dodgers’ starter, Rich Hill, was a member of the 2015 Syracuse Chiefs, and the Nats cut him loose. Hill has reinvented himself as one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball with a spinning hook that just baffles batters badly when he is on point. Hill’s ERA is at 3.67 this season and has been inconsistent, and who can forget that 9-inning no-hitter he lost in the 10th inning on a walk-off in Pittsburgh. His K/9 is at 10.7 this season and the key for batters is not helping Hill by swinging at balls out of the zone.

A.J. Cole is a dozen years younger than the 37-year-old Hill and coincidentally they were teammates on that 2015 Syracuse Chiefs team. Cole has one job this afternoon for the Nats, and that is to pitch better than Rich Hill. It’s a tall order, but Cole has shown the ability to pitch well during his first 4 innings of work.

The Nationals offensive production from the veterans has been slumping of late with players like Rendon, Kendrick, and Werth all hitting below their season averages. Daniel Murphy is batting .333 this month but what is troubling is that he has had 4 games in the first half of September where he has struck out 2 or more times and that just isn’t the Daniel Murphy we know. He has been particularly struggling with lefty pitchers — but again, overall he is hitting fine. Unfortunately for Matt Wieters, he can’t buy a hit and has been playing with a sore back. In the 2nd half of this season, Wieters is batting .197. For full-time catchers, he is the lowest rated (h/t Wadlez) by FanGraph’s WAR at a -0.2 and for catchers with at least 250 at-bats, Wieters is the second worst in all of baseball. Continue reading →

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This game was over early as EJax gives up 7 over 2 1/3; #Nats bullpen throws shutout over 6 2/3

Posted on September 15, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

The starters celebrate with Ace of Spades champagne. L to R, Jackson, Scherzer, Strasburg, Cole, Ross, Gonzalez, Roark, Fedde

Unfortunately, Edwin Jackson is a shadow of what he was when he joined the Nationals during the 3rd week of July. Jackson’s ERA  jumped nearly a full point to  4.96, and he lasted only 2 1/3 innings tonight after he only went 3 1/3 in his previous start. In Jackson’s last 17 1/3 innings, he has given up 20 runs of which 18 were earned runs. Part of the problem tonight was Jayson Werth lost a flyball in the twilight sky and 5 runs scored after that. The Nationals ended up losing 7-to-0, and the Nationals offense had some chances with runners in scoring position but couldn’t muster one clutch hit or even a productive out when Ryan Zimmerman was on 3rd base early in the game with one out.

If you are looking for a silver lining, the Nationals bullpen threw 6 2/3 innings of shutout baseball after taking over for Jackson. In fact the Nationals did this without pitching Matt Albers or Brandon Kintzler or Ryan Madson or Sean Doolittle. Continue reading →

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Game #147 Dusty Baker goes with his #1 lineup tonight against the Dodgers with EJax on the mound

Posted on September 15, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

Without Bryce Harper available, the Nationals seem to be playing short-handed even with an outfield of Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor and Howie Kendrick. Dusty Baker has inserted back the ailing Daniel Murphy with the rest of the infield starters plus Matt Wieters who has been dealing with a balky back.  Edwin Jackson is the starting pitcher tonight, and he has unfortunately fallen back to earth. Jackson’s ERA has skyrocketed to 4.14 and he lasted only 3 1/3 innings in his last start surrendering 5 runs which also is the amount of runs he gave up in his previous start. In Jackson’s last 15 innings he has given up 13 runs of which 11 were earned runs. The Nationals need EJax to pitch better than that tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers will pitch lefty Alex Wood who has been scuffling himself. He has given up 12 runs over his last 16 innings.

The Nationals and Dodgers will conclude their regular-season series this weekend in D.C., which is their first meeting since early June which matched up well in terms of pitching, and the Nats at least had Bryce Harper playing . That series also featured an epic battle between Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg who were locked in a pitcher’s duel.

If you recall the June 5th to 7th series in Los Angeles this season, Gio Gonzalez won the first game 4-to-2, and Max Scherzer won the second game 2-to-1. The third game featured Kershaw and Strasburg who were tangled in a 2-to-1 game with the Nats behind. The Nats had plenty of chances to win that game.  Trea Turner led off the 8th with a triple and the Nats did not score him as he was stranded at 3rd base. Strasburg only gave up one earned run in that game and he had to work harder in that game due to a fielding error that gave 3 free bases away by Michael Taylor and a very costly passed ball on a strikeout that led to the winning run which was botched by catcher Jose Lobaton who then also couldn’t block a pitch in the dirt for a wild pitch. Those games had a playoff atmosphere.

The Nats won’t face either Kershaw or Yu Darvish in this series, and the Dodgers won’t see Max Scherzer or Gio Gonzalez. The last time the Nationals saw the Dodgers in Washington, D.C. was the 5th game of the 2016 NLDS.

Continue reading →

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Does Victor Robles have a real shot at making the NLDS roster?

Posted on September 15, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

Photo by Marlene Koenig for TalkNats

You can only carry 25 players on your post-season roster. That is a rule. No expanded rosters in the post-season like managers have now.  Last year in the NLDS, Dusty Baker went with an ill-advised 6 man bench and a 7 man bullpen, and we hope he does not do that again as the tried and true method is an 8 man bullpen and the normal 5 man bench.

Victor Robles was added to the Nats roster this month and made his debut as the youngest player in baseball at 20-years-111-days-old and he has started just 2 games in his Major League Baseball career, and the sample size gives you a glimpse. It reminds you of love at first sight and thinking that could be your future spouse, but like with top prospects, you must let it play out and get to know each other for a while as it’s easy to fall in love and most times it fizzles out over time. Now some would say we fell in love with Victor Robles years ago — yes, that is true. A baseball marriage is usually only 7 years unless you marry a Ryan Zimmerman. The divorces are usually painful. But some of the marriages are like a honeymoon most everyday.

JD comments: “I think the idea of putting Robles in the lineup for now and the playoffs is all of the sudden very enticing. I am not talking about a bench spot. I am talking every day lineup…I think VR is better than MAT now. He is better than Werth too but I don’t think they are benching Jayson in his last month here.”

There are those that think you go with potential even though Robles only has played all of 2 MLB games. We have seen the hit and speed tool, and any scout who has followed him knows he is a 4 1/2 tool player as the power tool is just a matter of time.

Let’s talk about speed and how speed has once again changed the game of baseball so much so that the Royals used that tool as a secret weapon in the 2014 and 2015 post-season. The Royals carried Jarrod Dyson mostly as a pinch-runner and defensive specialist as the last man on their bench as well as Mondesi. Speed kills as we like to say. Trea Turner is one of the fastest men in baseball. We usually judge baseball speed on the 2×90 foot race aka the 60 yard dash or the equivalent of running from home to 2nd base.

“I’m always thinking third base unless [the 3rd base] coach stops me,” Victor Robles said.

Trea ran a 6.3 in High School as we know from this interview with his High School coach Larry Greenstein.  6.2 is considered world class speed and a 6.3 is about the best you will find in baseball since these aren’t Olympic sprinters and Bullet Bob Hayes and Skeets Nehemiah don’t play baseball. That extra 10th of a second either way makes a difference. Most players are lucky if they are 6.5 to 6.7. The Perfect Game scouting now measures their players at showcase events and they recorded Carlos Williams at 6.18. Williams went undrafted this year out of University of Memphis because he couldn’t hit and you can’t steal first, but you might want an “80 tool” runner on your post-season bench because Victor Robles has 80 speed. His scouting report says 65-70 but sorry, that’s 80 speed which is the best of the best.

Here is what Victor Robles did on his triple on speed.  He ran last night the fastest recorded time ever for a Nats player on a triple eclipsing times from Trea Turner and Ben Revere.  Continue reading →

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Nats win this one behind Roark, Robles and Running

Posted on September 14, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

Photo by Marlene Koenig for TalkNats

This game was delayed by rain and started a half hour late. Tanner Roark had a no-hitter into the 5th inning and hit the wall in the 6th inning giving up a 2-run home run to Ozzie Albies. Luckily Roark departed with his 3-2 lead and handed the game over to “The Firm” to close it out. Matt Albers, Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle combined for a 3 inning shutout. Doolittle completed his 18th save for the Nationals who won their 89th game tonight.

The speed game was definitely a factor in this game with Trea Turner and Victor Robles and a clutch hit from Adrian Sanchez. Jayson Werth, Adam Lind and Victor Robles each had 2 hits apiece in the game and others could have been part of the multi-hit parade but the Braves robbed a few hits in this one.

Robles knocked in the 2nd run of the game with a triple then scored the 3rd run of the game on a groundout and later had an infield hit and scored on an Adrian Sanchez 2-RBI double. Continue reading →

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Game #146 features a shuffling of the starters

Posted on September 14, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

We mentioned yesterday that based on the current rotation and the Monday day-off that Tanner Roark was due to pitch last night and instead Max Scherzer got the start. Roark pitched last Thursday and he wasn’t particularly sharp giving up runs in the third, fourth, and fifth innings and departed after the 6th inning at a 100 pitch count.

Max Scherzer pitched the night after Roark against the Phillies on Friday night, and the pitching rotation set-up for Gio Gonzalez on Tuesday, Roark last night, and Max Scherzer tonight with Edwin Jackson tomorrow followed by Stephen Strasburg. We will seed-out (below) the probable pitchers going forward. Somewhere in the future, AJ Cole could also spot-start for the Nats, and Dusty Baker could once again re-seed the rotation.

We also never found an explanation for the change in the rotation to move Roark back in any of the media reports from either manager Dusty Baker or GM Mike Rizzo.  JD commented in a post that the rotation order change was most likely to set-up the post-season rotation. That’s entirely possible with 16 games remaining, but it still looks odd. The regular season schedule ends on Sunday, October 1st and the first NLDS game is Friday October 6th. Continue reading →

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Scherzer statline says 7 earned runs; Fans are stunned!

Posted on September 13, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

In the top of the 7th inning, the game was tied 2-to-2 and Max Scherzer had a 97 pitch count. Scherzer was not his sharpest as he struggled early while being victimized by his defenders who didn’t make plays. Scherzer could have hung up his cleats at that point, but came out for the 7th inning and walked the lead-off man then walked the second batter of the inning. The rookie Ozzie Albies was told to sacrifice bunt the two runners over and he tried but Scherzer wasn’t getting the balls over the plate and he walked the bases loaded.

Keep in mind that Sammy Solis had been ready in the bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker still didn’t pull Scherzer who was at 115 pitches and he left him in to face Swanson who singled home 2 runs. They then intentionally walked Freddie Freeman to load the bases and Scherzer was pulled by Baker to a scattering of boos. Dusty Baker brought in Brandon Kintzler to face Matt Kemp. The first pitch Kemp saw was a hanging slider that he deposited in the leftfield seats for a grand slam. That was the end of the scoring to make it 8-to-2. Continue reading →

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Game #145 Max Scherzer against Braves

Posted on September 13, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

This game marks the point in the season when the final 18 games are remaining in the regular season, and after tonight’s game is a “final”, the regular season is 90% complete. For the Atlanta Braves, they are playing for next year and if rumors are true, they will look very different with a new manager as Brian Snitker is on the hot seat.

Jon Heyman on Twitter: “there’s uncertainty surrounding Braves managerial situation. if they make a change, here are the 2 candidates. https://t.co/WLzPBary8M”  https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/908061105314041857

Max Scherzer will pitch tonight and have 3 scheduled regular season starts after this. Here’s some math: Scherzer is at 178 1/3 innings this season due mostly to the neck issue compared to 228 1/3 innings last year. If all goes according to plan with Scherzer he can coast into another Cy Young award and 205 innings of work plus extra rest before the Nats first post-season game on October 6th in the NLDS.

Of course that is my plan with 95 pitches per start, and Scherzer and Mike Maddux and Dusty Baker have the actual plan.

The plan for the Braves tonight is pitching rookie Luiz Gohara. He got hit around hard during his last start against the Marlins. Continue reading →

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Rafa Nieves is a name you will know in the future for the #Nats

Posted on September 13, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

If you remember that Wil Nieves vintage commercial about the popular Nationals catcher, you know the infamous line “Who? Wil Nieves”. The name Rafa Nieves evokes the — Who? — and probably means nothing to you, but it does to Mike Rizzo and his staff. Rafa Nieves is the 34-year-old player’s agent who represents several Washington Nationals top minor leaguers and a three on the current Nationals roster.

Dining at Applebee’s with Rafa Nieves and Victor Robles

Nieves represents much of the Nats’ future like Scott Boras does with the present and near-future — reppin’ more recognizable names like: Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez, Brian Goodwin, and Jayson Werth. If you follow the Nationals prospects, you know Rafa’s players. Where do you start? It has to begin with Victor Robles who is the #1 prospect for the Nationals. Nieves also reps Pedro Severino, Rafael Bautista, Luis Garcia and Yasel Antuna.

“It’s great working with [Mike] Rizzo,” Rafa Nieves said. “His scouting background makes him a great evaluator of young guys.”

The 17-year-old Antuna was signed last year for a $3.9 million bonus and is ranked in the Nationals top-20. Luis Garcia is also in the top-20 and he was signed for $1.3 million last summer. Both Antuna and Garcia are from the Dominican Republic. Both players are listed as shortstops and you can view them on the 2016 international rankings for all players.

Rafael Nieves came to the United States from his home in Venezuela at the age of 16 to play baseball after being signed by the Detroit Tigers. Nieves never made it far in professional baseball but the life of hard knocks is sometimes the best schooling. What he learned, he passes on to his clients to guide them towards the path of success. There are many forks in the road for these young men who Nieves starts a relationship with when they are mere teenagers. Victor Robles was the youngest call-up in the Major Leagues this year at 20-years-111-days-old. Continue reading →

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Gio falters as Nats go down to the Braves 8-0

Posted on September 12, 2017 by Stephen G. "Ghost" Mears

This game was unrecognizable as the Washington Nationals we know as they were blown out 8-to-0 by the Braves. Gio Gonzalez gave up 5 runs over 5 innings and struggled to get quick outs as he threw 49 pitches in the first two innings and just was not sharp.

The Nats just could not sustain any offense against Julio Teheran and on the evening the Nationals only had 9 hits and 2 walks. Every Nats starting position player had a hit except for Matt Wieters. The Nats 0-5 in RISP, but the Nats also took themselves off of the bases twice as Howie Kendrick was caught stealing and Trea Turner was picked-off.

Michael Taylor was in a funk in centerfield. He had one error but also failed to field 3 balls that were all in his vicinity. The Nats really only turned in two exceptional fielding plays with a diving catch by Howie Kendrick and a play deep at shortstop by Trea Turner. Continue reading →

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