Photo by Marlene Koenig/TalkNats
The Washington Nationals are in Cleveland for Memorial Day. They enter this game with a .500 record, and a math lesson says an odd numbered game like 55 cannot be evenly divided by two. Either the Nats go to their hotel tonight with a winning record or a losing record. Basically, the 27-27 Nats will either be 28-27 or 27-28 after this game. The former would be incredible for the team and the fan base.
What is impressive is the Nats left Atlanta in a near tie for the 25th best ERA in baseball at 4.82. The Braves have the best team ERA in all of baseball and the Nats won that series. What the Nats did over the weekend is show how you beat the best teams in baseball in a playoff atmosphere. Also of note, the Nats ERA and FIP are identical at 4.82. Of course that is an anomaly to see them aligned, and that isn’t the case for each individual pitcher. What that means:
FIP is lower than ERA: The pitcher is likely experiencing bad luck. For example, tough fielding, seeing-eye singles dropping in, high BABIP (batting average on balls in play), and is due for positive progression.
ERA is lower than FIP: The pitcher is likely benefiting from good luck, an exceptional defensive team, or strong pitching in high-leverage situations -or- a combination of all of them and is due for negative regression.
The numbers are aligned: This confirms the pitcher’s actual results match their underlying skill and performance level.
With the Nats offense leading baseball in runs scored, the Nats Big-5, the L.A.W.Y.R.’s of Lile, Abrams, Wood, Young and Ruiz have a combined +6.8. And Young and Lile are now tied for the third most valuable Nats with Wood back at the top. Since we just passed the one-third mark of the season, let’s extrapolate some numbers for a full season: Wood (6.0 WAR), Abrams (5.4), Lile (3.3), Young (3.3), and Ruiz (2.4). That adds up to +20.4 for those five.
For Lile, he is back in the state of Ohio where he obliterated the baseball against the Reds. Hopefully he finds that touch once again. The same for Luis Garcia Jr. who woke up his bat in Cincinnati.
For tonight, PJ Poulin will be the opener with Zack Littell coming in after him. How manager Blake Butera pieces together his bullpen after Littell is the big question mark. Clayton Beeter could be tonight’s closer. The rest of the bullpen could be based on this chart:
The FanGraphs WAR chart is accumulating data. The numbers are getting very large as the season is headed towards the halfway point on June 24. The OAA defense stat is now giving us a picture of what the Nats have — and don’t have.
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
1st Pitch: 6:10 PM EDT
TV: Nationals.TV
Radio: 106.7 The Fan radio and via the MLB app. On Sirius/XM, tune to Channel 182 for the home broadcast and the road team is online only.
