Until the Washington Nationals can fix their starting rotation to be a top-half of the league group, don’t expect the Nats to be true contenders. While the team is excelling on offense at the top of the league, the pitching is near the bottom of baseball. Just like yesterday, winning games at 8-7 is not a sustainable model. The team should be scoring eight runs and holding their opponents to four runs. That is the model for a contending team.
How can the Nats get their pitching to those type of levels? First they can continue to coach up their players, but at some point you need better players. The Nats team ERA coming into today is a 5.91 ERA which is second to last in all of baseball. The MLB middle is a 4.01. Getting there might require the team to make some more changes going forward to the players and their roles. For instance, Miles Mikolas has an 11.49 ERA in four appearances.
Positive changes and coaching up players while simultaneously improving the farm system are the ultimate goal to getting back to contending. The timeframe was something that President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni, did not want to put a timetable on.
Why 2026 is a Rebuilding Year BUT an improving year:
- Contention Timeline: Experts and the front office have indicated that the team’s competitive window is pushed towards future year.
- Offseason Strategy: In the offseason, the team traded away its undisputed ace, MacKenzie Gore, for a haul of five prospects. This move signaled that they are maximizing long-term value rather than trying to win now.
- Record Projections: Analysts projected the team to win between 61 and 73 games, placing them at the bottom of a highly competitive NL East dominated by the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. Of course analysts are often wrong, and Toboni said they want to finish with a winning record.
- Financial Flexibility: While the team has high payroll flexibility with an estimated $97M payroll, they have avoided major free-agent deals, preferring to use their “financial leeway” to address future needs. This puts the team in a great spot if they can increase revenues.
Since the future greatly depends on the farm system, here is the Top-30 prospects from MLB Pipeline. There are a lot of middle infielders, corner infielders, and pitchers on that list. This is where the Nationals have to hit big on some of these players.
These Nats are a team to watch. They enter Friday in second place in the NL East with a 9-10 record. Let’s see if the team can feast on the Giants the way they did on the Brewers. That could go a long way into making more of these analysts into believers.
To answer the question as to: Could the Washington Nationals contend earlier than expected? The answer is Yes. They certainly could contend earlier than expected, and what we are seeing is a good start.
