A New Year brings new dreams. Everyone should dream of what could be. And we can finally say “last year” when we refer to 2024. We begin 2025 with everyone deciding their own outlook on life, the world, and of course baseball. Even FanGraphs is looking optimistically on the Washington Nationals to win over 75-games based on the moderate changes on the roster to improve over the 71-wins from last year.
While 75-wins should not satisfy anyone here, maybe just maybe the Nats have a surprise for us to get this team well above that mark. Based on what Baseball Prospectus projected for the Nats last year with a 59-win season, the team beat that mark by 12-wins. That’s why we actually play the games. Who knows what this 2025 Nats’ roster will actually do.
We saw breakout seasons for several Nats’ players to get those +12 wins. Players like CJ Abrams, Jacob Young, Trevor Williams, Luis Garcia Jr., MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, and Mitchell Parker were all positive surprises. While all of these players were expected to have decent seasons, they all exceeded expectations — and Herz and Parker were not expected to make significant contributions on the big league roster.
We saw Baseball America No. 1 prospect James Wood make his MLB Debut on July 1, and when he graduated as a prospect in early August, we saw Dylan Crews named as the No. 1 prospect to replace Wood. And Crews still holds that distinction in all of baseball as he maintained his prospect status even after his MLB debut. Both of these players gave a promising glimpse to the future.
And for those who think the Nats haven’t spent enough, they have spent the 15th most in just free agent dollars per MLB Trade Rumors with the signings of RHP Michael Soroka, RHP Trevor Williams, and DH Josh Bell. But when you factor in all of the new money, they will commit well over $25 million for two years to Nathaniel Lowe who they acquired via a trade for Robert Garcia. That money to Lowe is in addition to the $29 million of guaranteed free agent money already committed. And keep in mind that Garcia would have been making the league minimum money of $760,000 this year. Factor in that Lowe money, and the Nats total spent would be 11th most in baseball.
Also keep in mind that the Nats were trying to coax free agent, Gleyber Torres, to play third base per Jon Heyman. Our source said the Nats would have paid him a 2-year deal for approximately $35 million. That is $2.5 million more than what Torres actually got from the Tigers on an annual basis, and the difference per Heyman, was that Torres did not want to play third base. As MLB Trade Rumors wrote, “third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.”
Remember, the offseason still has over 40-days remaining until Spring Training camps open up, and expect those numbers will change on what each team spends in free agency and in trade acquisitions.
“I’m optimistic. I’m excited about this time in our developmental curve with the organization. When your guys do get out there on the [Minor League side of camp], those prospects — it’s an exciting time. It’s the best group of upside players we’ve ever had here. I’ve been here since ‘day one’, and I’ve never seen it like this before.”
— President of Baseball Operations and GM, Mike Rizzo, said two years ago and that might still apply today
“You filter in — there’s 22, 23 and 24 year-olds [on the MLB roster], I think you see what we’re trying to accomplish here. That’s the first rung on the ladder to get back to a championship.”
Maybe the best news of the offseason came when Matt Adams worked some magic to get the Nationals the No. 1 draft pick in this year’s draft after the lottery ball with a 10.2 percent probability bounced the way of the Nats. The team could be looking at drafting Ethan Holliday, Jace LaViolette, Jamie Arnold — or any player they want. They have the first pick.
The Nationals farm is ranked in the top-half of baseball by all evaluators. Once Crews graduates as a prospect in early April, he could be replaced three month later by the Nats’ No. 1 draft pick — unless Travis Sykora, Brady House, Jarlin Susana or another Nats’ prospect really steps it up. Here is a current ranking of the Nats’ prospects per MLB Pipeline.
Overall, a young team like the Nationals will get most of their upside from within their current roster just like they did last year. Also consider that most of the negative performers from the 2024 roster were deleted in a purge that started before last year’s All-Star break via several DFA’s, one injury, expiring contracts of Patrick Corbin and Joey Gallo, and a non-tender of Tanner Rainey, and in total those deletions removed -5.5 of negative WAR based on actual results.
Addition by subtraction is another reason for optimism. Expect that the defense should look much-improved this year, making the pitchers even better — and if third base is upgraded defensively, the Nats have a good shot of going from the 5th worst defense in baseball last year to a Top-5 defense this year.
“With Bell and Lowe in the fold, and expected improvement from CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup. If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball in 2025, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.”
— Mark Polishuk wrote in MLB Trade Rumors
All considered, the Nats have had a pretty pretty good offseason in a totality look back, and a glass half-full optimistic look. Just ask Larry David.
