The predictions of the cost to sign free agents

The World Series could end ended (updated) tonight, and we could are officially be in the offseason tomorrow. Free agency is looming right around the corner — and will really get going at the Winter Meetings in Nashville on December 4. That is just 33 days from now.

Washington Nationals’ owner Mark Lerner said that he will leave the free agent decisions to his general manager Mike Rizzo. With that said, it looks like the onus is on Rizzo to do what he needs to do to improve the team and sign free agents. Yesterday, Jim Bowden of The Athletic put out his predictions on contract values and length for free agents as well as landing spots. He has the Nats as possible landing spots for Jeimer Candelario, Harrison Bader, and Jack Flaherty. The Nats do not need Bader given that the team has Jacob Young as well as top prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood. The Nats priorities are starting pitching and a power bat.

Bowden has Shohei Ohtani at 10 years and $477 million with a hefty incentives package and eight suitors for him. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the under-sized Japanese right-hander will be repped by Wasserman Agency, and Bowden has him at seven years and $211 million. Jordan Montgomery repped by Boras at five years and $127 million sounds light to me. Boras? Come on, he will be pushing for seven years. Aaron Nola at five years and $125 million is repped by the same agent who has Jackson Rutledge. But rumor was they wanted $200 million from the Phillies. Blake Snell is also a Boras client and Bowden has him at five years and $122 million. Come on, Boras isn’t taking that. Sonny Gray at three years and $64 million. Bowden thinks Rhys Hoskins will be looking for a one year pillow deal at $12 million. This one is a head-scratcher because Bowden as Candelario at two years and $15 million. I’d do that without hesitation. And Flaherty he has on a one year deal at $10 million with incentives. That might be the only prediction that Bowden nails.

If Rizzo really does have carte blanche to make the spending decisions with Lerner’s greenlight, then it really comes back to what the Nats’ general manager wants. He has stated over and over that starting pitching drives everything — so that should be the focus.

“It’s [Mike Rizzo’s] call as to how he wants to fill the holes … a free agent or whatever, he knows the game plan he wants to follow … whatever he desires. He knows he has the resources … to build a winner.”

— Lerner said in an exclusive team interview at the end of the season

After the Washington Nationals won 69-games in 2010, Mark’s father, Ted Lerner, greenlighted a nine-digit contract for Jayson Werth — the largest in franchise history at the time. After the Nats just won 71-games this season, you have to wonder if Rizzo sees it as the right time to start increasing payroll significantly.

While Lerner did say he personally didn’t know if this year is the right time to go after a big fish free agent, he said it was Rizzo’s call. For those worried about the Nats’ spending, they made a few offers to Juan Soto that reportedly ended with a $440 million deal with NO deferrals. That was less than 1½ years ago. For the right player, the Nats will spend. The issue might be that Rizzo doesn’t want to forfeit a draft pick around No. 50 to sign a free agent with a qualifying offer (QO) tag. Three top free agents: Yamamoto,  Montgomery, and Candelario are not eligible for QOs. That is the aisle that Rizzo should be shopping in. The competition will be tough.

Some think Rizzo shouldn’t shy away from QO’d players. Expect that Blake Snell and Aaron Nola will have QOs on them. The expected QO figure will be around $20.5 million for this year. If the Nats sign any QO’d free agents, they would forfeit their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft which like I wrote above will be around No. 50 plus the Nats would lose $500,000 from their bonus pool during the next international signing period. Those are some significant penalties. We will see if Rizzo wants to go there.

“It all starts with starting pitching. Our starting pitching needs to get better, that’s for sure.”

— Manager Dave Martinez said last year

Everyone wants to see the Nats acquire one power bat. Home run power is not the total answer, especially when you look at the Diamondbacks and Marlins. Both of those teams were a mere 15 home runs better than the Nats, and Arizona and Miami both made the playoffs — and the Diamondbacks made the World Series. Of course the Braves were eliminated in their first round, and they set records for home runs this year. The Phillies bashed their way into being a game ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NLCS — and the Phillies lost — which once again proves that great pitching beats power bats.

The key goes back to team balance. Better pitching is where it has to start for the Nats as a priority. That is getting back to basics. You have to think the Nats can get at least 15 more home runs by coaching up their players, and a few tweaks to their roster. Obviously you would want more. All rumors point to the Nats bringing back their hitting coach Darnell Coles — but getting him a new assistant.

“Starting pitching is the driver to me . . . We’ve built our [rosters] based on having a guy in the middle of the diamond who gives us a chance to win every day.”

— Rizzo said after the 2018 season

There are no easy fixes to a rebuild. The Nats made amazing progress this year. What they do this offseason could shape the future of this franchise. While the team certainly did some roster clean-up, addition by subtraction, last week, they still have more moves to come.

The 2024 team should be built to contend from a 71-win team this year. Nobody is asking for a $200 million payroll. But spend enough to improve the starting rotation at the very least. Manager Dave Martinez, in three different media sessions around the end of the season, had talked about “playoffs and playoff contention.”

“… we have a chance to win here, and get back to where we need to be, and that’s to be in the playoffs.”

” … tack on some more wins and get to those playoffs. …”

” … and be ready to go with [the goal to] try to get back into playoff contention.”

— manager Dave Martinez said before the end of the 2023 season

While Martinez is optimistic, he is saying the words that many in the fan base are saying about improving to be a contender. Nobody wants to lose. Accepting a level below mediocrity is like accepting failure when you know you have a choice. Last year, Rizzo promised a better defense and delivered on that promise. All of the pitchers, except MacKenzie Gore, benefitted from that improved defense. It was also clear that the analytics and defensive positioning finally took a big step forward.

Also, this is where the Lerner ownership has to back up their talk about it being “the right time.” Timing is very subjective — but one thing is clear that this is the time to take a step forward just like Ted Lerner did after the 2010 season. That team improved 10-wins from 59 the prior season. These Nats improved by 16-wins from 55 wins last year — and just finding +14.0 WAR this offseason might make these Nats a playoff contender. Okay, it isn’t easy finding additional WAR. An 85-win team could be a true contender.

Big WAR costs money so a lot of that +14.0 WAR would need to happen internally. That is how the Cincinnati Reds did it with internal moves and top prospect promotions. The Nats are getting close with Wood, Crews and Brady House. Add those three players plus two free agents giving you an average of +2.0 WAR each, would add-up to +10.0 WAR, and the only twist on that logic is that some of those top prospects won’t be on the roster for a full season. The other +4.0 WAR would have to come from internal improvement of current players. By the way, here is a list of top free agents.

“We’re all in. … Just like we did the last time with Werth [in free agency before the 2011 season], at the right time, we will be back in the free agent market again. … Trust me, nobody wants to win more than me.”

— Mark Lerner said before the season in an interview with Dan Kolko

Again, talk is cheap. Put your money where your mouth is and sign your Werth equivalent from the free agent starting pitching pool this offseason. Give Martinez the tools he needs, and the ability to build the best starting rotation he can assemble since 2019. With any luck, the playoffs won’t just be the talk, rather a reality to shock the baseball world.

In many ways this 2023 team overachieved, or at least they finished where Martinez thought they could be in 2023. The team just needs a better roster for 2024, and that is on Rizzo for the roster construction, and the coaching staff to “coach up” the players.

“The mid-goal is to continue this rebuild process in a positive way. To have our good young players take the next step in their progression … We think that we have one of the better, deeper, more impactful [farm] systems in the game which we will use at our big league level in the near-future to help us get back to a championship-caliber club.”

— Rizzo said in interviews at the end of the season

In theory, it all looks good with some cautious-optimism. But since we deal in reality, we will see what Rizzo does. He is finishing his build-out of his new front office in the draft group and player development department. After that, his full focus can be on free agency.

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