Math Lessons in the NL East. 12% odds according to Baseball Prospectus

The Nationals have 37 games left to play in the season, and the Mets have 36 games left to play in their season.  There are 6 head-to-head games against the NY Mets remaining in the schedule which are the only games the Nats theoretically could determine the outcome for both the Nats and Mets.  The Nats are 6 1/2 games behind the Mets.  Those are the main facts in the math lesson, and the rest is all about the Nats winning games, and the Mets losing games which will change the aforementioned facts going forward.  The rest of the math is all variable math and dependent of resulting wins and losses by both teams.

The Mets now have a Magic # of 31 against the Nats.

Circle September 7th, 8th, and 9th on your calendars because if the Nats can sweep that series from the Mets and be within 3 games of 1st Place on the morning of September 10th, there will be a September to remember.  In order to do that, the Nats would have to be within 6 games of the Mets after September 6th and of course we hope the Nats can be closer.

If you believe in the Mets meltdown of 2007, then believe it’s possible to happen again.  Read this to see what’s possible:

METS 2007 Collapse Was Of Epic Proportions

Screen Grab from MASN Sports

Screen Grab from MASN Sports

Just remember that right now anything is possible in the pennant race while the math says it’s still possible.


Baseball Prospectus gives the Nats a 12% chance of making the postseason.  Keep in mind those odds go up or down each day based on results.  If the Nats can go into a classic long win streak then those odds go up just like if the Mets go into a losing streak.

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