Photo for Talk Nats from staff photographer Sol Tucker of NLDS “Red Sea”
The problem of what realist management and fans should do about their teams who are looking at a “Snowball’s” chance of making the playoffs.
I cannot speak to the Mariners realistic playoff chances, but will say that ESPN’s/Nate Silver’s 538 has a good analysis into the probabilities of the chances that the Nationals will make the playoffs. I haven’t done nearly the statistical permutations he has, but we arrived independently at nearly identical (statistically insignificant) percentages. The Nationals and Mariners are the only two teams that constitute a “murky middle” where they are neither clearly in the running for a playoff berth, nor so far out of contention the placing a significant bet on them in Vegas would draw scrutiny. Continue reading
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