In 2022, the Juan Soto trade broke the hearts of some fans with rooting interests in the Washington Nationals. Within weeks before the trade, Soto had turned down the largest guaranteed money in American sports history at the time. The rejected $440 million offer was a number that could have gone higher if Soto’s side had wanted to negotiate it further as we sourced at the time.
Sometimes the best deal you could make is the one you didn’t — meaning in hindsight, the Nats were fortunate that Soto did not take that extension deal to stay in Washington. The blockbuster trade with the Padres netted five key players for the Nats. A calendar year after the Nationals traded Soto, the Padres traded him to the Yankees. A year and 4 days later, Soto left the Yankees with only a compensatory draft pick, and he signed with the Mets — but the Yankees subsequently lost that compensatory draft pick as part of the penalty for signing Max Fried.
If the Washington Nationals hung onto Soto through the 2024 season, it would most likely be the Nationals who would feel as scorned as the Yankees. There is one other trade in professional sports history that we can try to compare to the Nats trading Soto to the Padres and that was in a different sport in 1989, when the Dallas Cowboys shocked everyone by trading their superstar RB, Herschel Walker.
The general manager behind signing Walker to the Cowboys, Gil Brandt, is enshrined in the football Hall of Fame. We will see how history records general manager Mike Rizzo’s signing of Soto as a 16 year old and then trading him in this blockbuster deal that netted the Nationals essentially three former 1st round picks, one 2nd round pick (paid 1st round draft bonus), and the top-rated pitcher from that year’s international free agency. Here is the list of the potential stars the Nats received from the Padres and their ages and signing bonuses at the time:
- INF/OF C.J. Abrams (21 years old) 1st round (6th overall) of 2019 $5.2 million
- LHP MacKenzie Gore (23 years old) 1st round (3rd overall) of 2017 $6.7 million
- OF Robert Hassell III (20 years old) 1st round (8th overall) of 2020 $4.3 million
- OF James Wood (19 years old) 2nd round of 2021 $2.6 million
- RHP Jarlin Susana (18 years old) International free agency $1.7 million
These were three top-8 picks in the first rounds of the 2017, 2019, and 2020 drafts plus Wood who was seen as a fringe 1st round prospect who slipped based on rumors of the demands of his agent, Scott Boras. He ended up signing for $2.6 million and that bonus was equal to the slot in the 1st round between pick 26-27. Wood’s actual slot value in the 2nd round was set at $1,102,700. Add to that, Susana was signed this year in the international free agency at $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic. That is a combined total of $20.5 million that the Padres paid those five players in signing bonuses.
The Dallas Cowboys were in a very similar situation to what the Nats were in at the time, which was being one of the worst teams in the league, and a team that knew prior success. In 1989, the Cowboys finished in last place in the NFC East with a record of 1-15. In the middle of that terrible season, the Cowboys decided to trade their most coveted player, just like the Nats. In the six years after the Walker trade, the Cowboys won three Super Bowls.
In return for Walker, three draft picks (and one from San Diego) the Minnesota Vikings sent the Cowboys five players AND eight draft picks. This trade was crucial for the Cowboys dynasty that took place in the 90s. One of the draft picks was used to select DB Darren Woodson, who went on to be a 3x Pro Bowler, 3x All Pro, and 3x Super Bowl Champ. Another one of those draft picks was used for Hall of Fame RB, Emmitt Smith. Smith still has the most rushing yards in NFL history with 18,355 yards. Here is a list of the players/draft picks who the Cowboys received:
LB Jesse Solomon
LB David Howard
CB Issiac Holt
RB Darrin Nelson (Traded to SD)
DE Alex Stewart
plus the following draft picks:
Vikings’ 1990 first, second, and sixth round picks
Vikings’ 1991 first and second round picks
Vikings’ 1992 first, second, and third round picks
The key were those first round draft picks that changed the Cowboys fortunes with Smith and Woodson. When the Cowboys sent Walker to the Vikings, it was believed it would help the Vikings win the Super Bowl. Not only was that not the case, but Walker also really struggled with his new team.
Baseball analysts lined up to say the Nats trade of Soto was the greatest haul in return for a trade in baseball history much like football analysts said about Walker. Jeff Passan of ESPN called it a “King’s Ransom.”
General Manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Robert Hassell III is being called up as an injury replacement. Hassell will join CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood to form a quartet of players from the Soto trade to play for the Washington Nationals. That would just leave Jarlin Susana as the final player from the trade who has not made it to the ‘show.’ While Hassell’s future impact at the MLB level is unknown, we know that FanGraphs has Abrams, Wood and Gore as the Top-3 most valuable players on the Nats’ team combining for +5.1 WAR. If this trio can minimally stay on their current pace, each would be All-Star candidates. Extrapolate that +5.1 WAR for a full season, and you’re looking at a +16.9 WAR for that triumvirate.
Besides the Dodgers, no other team has an offensive 1-2 combo like Abrams and Wood. And Gore leads all of baseball in strikeouts (84) as well as the highest K/9 rate (13.4). While Abrams was an All-Star last year, his numbers are better now. Wood leads all players aged under 23 in OPS as well as several other offensive categories.
“It was a good return for a good player (Soto). I thought it was a good Major League baseball trade. It was something that we had to do. We were fortunate to find a trading partner that met what we were trying to do. The [Padres] got what they wanted, and we got what we wanted. Time marches on.”
–general manager Mike Rizzo said today on the Sports Junkies radio show
“Now you’re seeing those four or five guys with Susana … It was a trade we had to make. It is going to be looked on as beneficial to the Nats.”
Take Rizzo’s quote and it is clear from what he said, “It was something that we had to do. … It was a trade we had to make,” that the Nationals would be in deep trouble if they didn’t make the Soto trade, and have Abrams, Gore, and Wood in particular. Where would the offense be without Abrams and Wood? They’re the only Opening Day starters with an OPS north of .695, and Gore is the ace of the pitching staff.
While Soto is having a good season, he isn’t having a great season with his +1.1 WAR. Three Sotos would be worth +3.3 WAR which is far less than the Nats’ trio has but up with their combined +5.1 WAR. But the vast difference is that Soto’s $51.9 million salary this season in a 2-week paycheck surpassed what Gore, Abrams, and Wood will earn for their entire combined season. The $/WAR value per FanGraphs tells you the risk of sinking that much money into one player.
If Hassell can get anywhere near his .288 batting average in Triple-A with a .742 OPS, that would surpass any current Nats’ outfielder, not named Wood. Better than those numbers is that Hassell’s stats for May are incredible with a .365 batting average and a 1.006 OPS. That cold April weather can certainly take its toll on players who arrive from Spring Training in Florida and have to adjust from tropical weather to frigid air blowing in from Canada.
At the time of the Soto trade, Hassell was actually the highest ranked prospect at the time. While it will be a wait and see what Hassell can produce at the MLB level, the tough part is that if Dylan Crews goes on the IL, he just got hot himself with clutch home runs in back-to-back games and took the MLB lead for all rookies for home runs. He also leads in runs scored and stolen bases too. The other possibility is that Jacob Young is dealing with an injury. Alex Call has been in a slump for a while, and he dropped to a -0.1 WAR at the same time that Crews got back to a league average WAR of 0.0 which was enhanced by his defense too.
And Hassell is on the 40-man roster, making the only decision as to who will land on the IL. We should know more later today if the weather cooperates, and they play the game tonight as scheduled.
