This past week, Baseball America did a major overhaul to their prospect rankings. The Washington Nationals rankings now have a new look at the top of their farm rankings due to trade acquisitions and having the №1 draft pick in 2025. Unfortunately, some familiar names are completely off this new list. This is a stain on the old front office — not the new one. Before we turn the page, we take a hard look at what went wrong.
After the July 31 trade deadline, a few players were seeded into the the mid-season rankings. Amazingly, one player, Eriq Swan, is already off the list. He came from the Dodgers with Sean Paul Liñan (№23) in the Alex Call trade. Why do the Nats keep trading with the Dodgers? The only three players from the trade deadline still ranked, are Liñan, Christian Franklin, and Ronny Cruz.
In the offseason, the Nats acquired Harry Ford in the Jose A. Ferrer trade, and Luis Perales in the Jake Bennett prospect-for-prospect trade. Ford and Perales are back-to-back in the Top-4 prospects. Those were moves by the new Paul Toboni front office.
Here is the Baseball America Top-30:
| 1. SS Eli Willits | 11. RHP Landon Harmon | 21. SS Ronny Cruz |
| 2. RHP Jarlin Susana | 12. OF Sam Petersen | 22. OF Christian Franklin |
| 3. C Harry Ford | 13. OF/1B Ethan Petry | 23. RHP Sean Paul Liñan |
| 4. RHP Luis Perales | 14. OF Andrew Pinckney | 24. RHP Yoel Tejeda |
| 5. RHP Travis Sykora | 15. LHP Jackson Kent | 25. RHP Riley Cornelio |
| 6. LHP Alex Clemmey | 16. 1B/3B Yohandy Morales | 26. LHP Andrew Alvarez |
| 7. SS Seaver King | 17. 2B/SS Marconi German | 27. OF Phillip Glasser |
| 8. SS Luke Dickerson | 18. C Caleb Lomavita | 28. OF Nauris De La Cruz |
| 9. SS Coy James | 19. RHP Miguel Sime | 29. SS Brayan Cortesia |
| 10. SS Angel Feliz (15) | 20. 3B Jorgelys Mota | 30. RHP Griff McGarry |
Noticeably off the list, besides Swan, are Kevin Bazzell, Robert Cranz, Elijah Green, Victor Hurtado, Daniel Hernandez, Andry Lara, Tyler Stuart, Cristhian Vaquero, and Cayden Wallace. And for most fans, they know that Green was the №5 overall pick in the 2022 draft and has struggled in the minors. And Baseball America who touted him as a freakish athlete in the 2022 draft blew it themselves with a terrible ranking and analysis — but the blame goes on the Nats staff for drafting Green with a clear swing & miss issue at the top of the draft. Then you have Vaquero who was nicknamed “The Phenomenon” before the Nats signed him in international free agency to a record $4.925 million bonus. He is close to earning the nickname, “Formerly Known as the Phenomenon.”
A big climber on the list is outfielder Sam Petersen who is at №12. At least we can find a positive on there. While a few others held their own like Eli Willits at №1 on the list with a great showing for his pro debut in the final two months of the 2025 season, there just aren’t enough successes on this list.
The Nats farm is ranked about middle of the league. But you would expect with all of the deadline trades since 2021, and the high draft picks since the 2021 draft in the Top-11, and three picks from №1 to №5, that the Nats would be in the tops of all farm systems. Nope.
Players who graduated from their “prospect status” in the Baseball America pre-season 2025 rankings are: Dylan Crews, Cade Cavalli, Brady House, Daylen Lile, Robert Hassell III, Drew Millas, Nasim Nuñez, and Jackson Rutledge.
And again, Jake Bennett is not on the rankings because he was traded in the Perales deal. Immediately, Bennett is ranked No. 6 in the Red Sox farm that is power-packed at the top with Payton Tolle, Franklin Arias, Connelly Early, and Kyson Witherspoon just ahead of Bennett. The Red Sox were the No. 1 farm ranked a year ago by Baseball America before they graduated three of their top players (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell) to MLB, but after they traded Kyle Teel with top prospect Braden Montgomery in the Garrett Crochet blockbuster.
That is five Top-100 prospects off of the Red Sox list from a year ago, and now you understand a little more about Paul Toboni who was the Red Sox VP of amateur scouting and player development before he joined the Nats as their President of Baseball Operations. Maybe Toboni really does know what he was talking about.
“I think it starts with creating a scouting and player development monster.”
— Toboni said after he was hired
“If we can just do a really, really good job identifying, acquiring, developing that talent, and then we create really a great culture around development and accountability — and hard work and all the things that we hold sacred, Bill Walsh, the famous NFL Coach, says the score will take care of itself.”
The Nats’ Baseball America list is mostly what Toboni inherited. He is responsible for acquiring Ford and Perales while giving up Bennett. For those counting, that is 18 players off the list from a year ago, and 18 new names on the list. That is a sizeable turnover.
But is that list good enough? Some might look at every name off of that Baseball America list (not due to graduation or a trade) as a failure. Green failed long before Toboni arrived. Is there anything salvageable? Can they reverse the riptide? For nearly a decade, this has been the theme and was the basis of a scathing exposé of the Nats internal failures in an article in May 2025 by Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic.
“Ownership’s lack of investment is partly to blame. The Nationals opened with a top-10 payroll seven out of eight seasons between 2014 and ’21, but in the past three years have averaged in the bottom 10.”
— Rosenthal wrote in his article
“A perhaps even bigger problem is the team’s failures in player development, as well as amateur and international scouting, going back more than a decade — failures that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo’s spectacular return for Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline can mask only so much.”
Of course, Rizzo was fired on July 6, 2025 — and exactly 40 days and 40 nights after Rosenthal’s article was festering in the minds of ownership. It was like the teflon coating was scratched on the untouchable Rizzo. The Washington Post, rarely negative on Rizzo, followed up with their own negative article after the Rosenthal slice and dice piece. It was like the floodgates were open, and it was a bad look.
Yes, blame ownership for not spending on top free agents in the rebuild — but they have always spent top dollar for amateur acquisitions — much of that has gone to waste in the past decade.
Paying huge bucks on international free agents, like on Yasel Antuna, Armando Cruz, Hurtado, Vaquero etc., just to see them tumble off the lists and into oblivion is disheartening. Antuna is long-gone out of the system with his $3.9 million bonus gone with him too. Cruz is barely hanging on with his $3.9 million bonus, Hurtado got $2.7 million, and as mentioned, Vaquero pocketed a record $4.925 million bonus.
Now you know why there have been so many changes in personnel starting at the international scouting group. The most expensive acquisitions are the international free agents — not only because of the signing bonuses, but in addition, the team houses these young players, feeds them, and educates them at their Dominican Academy. On top of that, they pay for their travel and stipends.
On the other hand, you see the Los Angeles Dodgers dominating in international free agency with the Brewers Red Sox, Padres and other teams. Where do you think Jarlin Susana came from? Look around at how the Red Sox made that Perales trade — they acquired him through international free agency and developed him in their minor league system.
This week international free agency officially opens on January 15. The Nationals are adding two new 17 year olds, Samil Serrano and Isaias Suarez, along with over 10 other players. If Baseball America waited to do their rankings for after the international free agent signings, both Serrano and Suarez would probably have seeded into this new Top-30. Here’s the irony, the Nats top international free agent signing last year, Brayan Cortesia, is ranked at №29 and just hanging on in the Top-30 rankings. He signed a deal worth $1.92 million in bonus money a year ago. If Serrano and Suarez were added to the rankings, Cortesia and Rule-5 pickup, Griff McGarry, would both be off the list.
Some say rankings mean very little. Daylen Lile would agree. He was never a Top-100 prospect in baseball, and was out of the Nats mid-season prospect Top-10 list. Yet, he proved to be the best performing 2025 prospect on the Nats surpassing the highly touted and №1 overall ranked prospect, Dylan Crews.
Rizzo said many times that winning was his goal and not being №1 in the Baseball America team rankings. “Our objective we have is to win championships — not to be №1 in Baseball America.” You will never hear Toboni and his staff diss a top Baseball America ranking. That ranking is like a health check on your system, and a direct reflection on your drafting, trading, scouting, and player development systems.
There are always choices in the draft and international free agency. You could have drafted catcher Will Smith over Carter Kieboom, George Kirby over Jackson Rutledge, Trey Yesavage over Seaver King, and Zach Neto over Green. This isn’t me giving revisionist history, I gave those as my picks in public on TalkNats and social media before each draft. Frankly, I had Nick Kurtz then Yesavage on who to pick in 2024 — and Kurtz, the reigning Rookie of the Year, was taken before the Nats pick at №10 in the 2024 draft. And Yesavage was available for the Nats to pick and they passed on him. He could be the 2026 Rookie of the Year. Who knows, maybe King will be a star for the Nats. For those who watched the 2025 World Series, Yesavage looked like a star.
My scouting budget is $0, and most years it is just whether or not my identified player was snagged before the Nats pick. Sure, I had Tyler Soderstrom over Cade Cavalli in that 2020 draft. So I guess my lineup would have Soderstrom in right field and Cavalli wouldn’t be in my rotation. I’d have Crews in center field, and yes, I make that same Juan Soto trade to get CJ Abrams, James Wood and MacKenzie Gore.
My drafts probably would out my team in the playoffs I believe. Sorry that I’m not humble about that. It is frustrating to say the least at the Nats failures. And if I went for a pitcher in the 2025 draft, I was back and forth between Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold. If I went with a position player, Willits was a good choice. Wouldn’t I still have Jesus Luzardo? Oh that’s right, he was traded to fix the Nats bad bullpen in 2017. Here we go with some of my 2025 rotation:
- Trey Yesavage
- George Kirby
- MacKenzie Gore
- TBD
- TBD
Also, I wouldn’t have needed to trade for Ford since I would have had Smith as my catcher. I wouldn’t have traded for Keibert Ruiz in 2021 since I had Smith. My payroll would have been so low because of all of the players built from within that you all know Trea Turner would have been my shortstop since I extended him before the 2017 season on that 10-year contract that I proposed. Abrams would have been my second baseman. Again, not revisionist history. All in the annals of TalkNats.
When it comes down to it, the GM job isn’t that difficult if you are qualified for the position. Some are rather good at it. Hopefully Ani Kilambi and Toboni are better than me. Because at some point, I will screw up a draft pick. OK, blame me for drafting Mason Denaburg in 2017. I still stand by him as a good pick and injuries derailed his career. Look, it happens. Rizzo picked him also — and not because I said it. But it shows that even with good intentions, picks don’t always workout. Hopefully we never say that about Crews.
Well guess what, the Nats won a championship with homegrown stars like Victor Robles, Soto, Stephen Strasburg, and even Ryan Zimmerman — and nobody can take away the fact that Rizzo was the GM for the 2019 World Series win. You can’t trade for Adam Eaton without top prospects like Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning, and Reynaldo Lopez. The Nats drafting system worked a long time ago. Most of that is old history now. As they say in business, “What have you done for me lately?”
So Toboni has the right idea — you want a scouting and player development monster to give you a player pipeline to win championships. But you can’t survive on a barren farm system like the Nats had on Dec. 8, 2016 — and lived that way for over a five year period.
This is why the rebuild failed: Poor drafts and poor player development, and has nothing to do with trades made nearly a decade ago and prior. To rebuild it right, you have to figure this through and build it from the bottom up with smart decisions.
