In the blockbuster 2022 trade of Juan Soto for CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, and Jarlin Susana, the Washington Nationals now have all of those players on their MLB roster except for Susana. On Tuesday night, the star of that night was Susana who put himself on a 23.4 strikeout pace in a 9-inning game.
Okay, in fairness, Cristhian Vaquero and Luke Dickerson hitting grand slams in the same inning for Single-A Fredericksburg was a distant second place to what Susana pulled off. Besides the two walks that Susana gave up, the only real blemish was when the №2 prospect in all of baseball, Kevin McGonigle, homered off of Susana in the 4th inning as he was tiring.
The Nats’ 21-year-old fireballer is the same age as Paul Skenes was when he was draft-eligible in 2023 and became the №1 draft pick. While the SEC is great for college baseball, Skenes wasn’t facing a Detroit Tigers minor league lineup that was loaded with top prospects like McGonigle, Max Clark and Josue Briceño. This isn’t to say that Susana is as good as Skenes, but could he be? Few humans can throw 5.0 innings and still be able to throw 100 mph. Skenes is one of a few.
But Skenes didn’t have a UCL strain like Susana had on May 4 with a Grade 1 UCL sprain. Should the Nationals go the route that the Reds went with Aroldis Chapman when they converted him early on from a starter to a Hi Lev relief pitcher?
In case you forgot, the Cincinnati Reds signed Chapman in January 2010 with the intention of developing him as a starting pitcher. He began his professional career in Triple-A, making 13 starts with the Louisville Bats before being transitioned to a relief role later that season. He made his MLB debut on August 31, 2010, at the age of 22, pitching in relief for the Reds. With eight All-Star appearances in the books, Chapman has a 1.15 ERA this year for Boston at the age of 37.
At this year’s trade deadline, it was the hi lev relief pitchers who were getting their former teams top prospects. Mason Miller netted the Athletics, the №2 prospect in all of baseball, Leo De Vries, and the Twins traded Jhoan Duran to the Phillies for two Top-100 prospects in Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel.
Playoff teams want to get a lead in the fifth inning of postseason game and turn it over to their shutdown bullpen to close the game out. In 2012 and 2013, Dusty Baker pitched Chapman 68 times in each season. You would be lucky to get 32-starts out of your ace starter. In today’s game, analytics are putting a higher valuation on bullpens than ever before.
So a serious question, can Susana be the next Skenes or Duran? Do you teach Susana a splinker and let him try to be the next Skenes, or do you go the route of Chapman and Duran and turn Susana into the next great closer?
As Lynn Grody pondered on Twitter this morning, ❝Wouldn’t that be something if Susana ends up being the №1 return piece for Soto.❞ That would be something. Dream a little bit, and that is certainly possible.
On the horizon and closing in on making their debuts in the next two seasons, the Nats have LHP Jake Bennett, Susana, LHP Alex Clemmey, and Travis Sykora (injured TJ and out for the 2026 season). They are all pitching for Double-A Harrisburg. In Triple-A, the Nats have Riley Cornelio as their top-rated prospect starter.
To borrow a paragraph from Monday, if Cade Cavalli truly is this type of pitcher that we have seen pitching for the Nationals this month, the whole outlook changes. It’s like finding a T.o.R. pitcher from within your system. Take MacKenzie Gore, Cavalli, and Brad Lord, and you have 3-of-your-5 starting pitchers.
If the Nationals are committed to adding a stud veteran starter in free agency to seed ahead of Gore — all of a sudden you have the makings of quite the rotation. Acquire a 3.25 ERA pitcher to go with Cavalli, Lord, and Gore’s current ERAs and target a 3.50 ERA for your starting staff. The Rangers, Brewers, Phillies, and Royals range from 3.38 to 3.52 on ERAs. Surprised? The Brewers CBT payroll was the same as the Nats to start the season at $140 million — and yes, the Nats are effectively at $105 million since they are carrying Stephen Strasburg‘s $35 million, so you would like to see the Nats at $175 million for next season. By the way, that’s about where the Kansas City Royals were to start the season.
2026 Projected Rotation
- TBD
- MacKenzie Gore
- Cade Cavalli
- Brad Lord
- TBA
Jake Bennett and Alex Clemmey debuts during the season. DJ Herz returns during the mid-season.
2027 Projected Rotation
Travis Sykora debuts during the season.
2028 Projected Rotation
You can certainly imagine many different scenarios and timelines. The player development and health is a key to all of this, and then staying effective as a player becomes a factor in this all.
