#Nats LineUp Options

Now that Ryan Zimmerman is on board with the Washington Nationals, we can expect he will get a number of the starts at 1B when the opposing starter is a left-hander. It is time to evaluate alternative lineups.

Steve: Sound good. Let’s do a lefty platoon/matchup lineup and a righty one using 171 PAs in games started by left handed pitchers and 513 in games started by right handed pitchers. I’ve sent you 3 sets of lineups:

• One using just the players on the roster as of now.
• One assuming Cesar Hernandez (I think he is undervalued).
• And since we are welcoming Sao to this Point-CounterPoint, one with Marcus Semien included.

Sao: Happy to be here!

Don: Sounds like a plan. And welcome to the conversation Sao.

I decided to format the line up so we could see them side-by-side. Makes it easier to see the differences IMO.

		Today		With Hernandez		With Semien
Position	Batter	LH Starter	RH Starter	LH Starter	RH Starter	LH Starter	RH Starter
1	Trea Turner	171	513	171	513	171	513
2	Juan Soto	171	513	171	513	171	513
3	Josh Bell		513		513
	Marcus Semien					171	513
	Ryan Zimmerman	171		171		171
4	Josh Bell						513
	Josh Harrison	171
	Kyle Schwarber		513		513
	Starlin Castro			171
5	Josh Harrison			171
	Kyle Schwarber						513
	Starlin Castro	171	513		513	171
6	Carter Kieboom	171
	Cesar Hernandez			171	513
	Josh Harrison					171
	Luis Garcia		513
	Starlin Castro						513
7	Yan Gomes	171	513	171	513	171	513
8	Andrew Stevenson		169		169		169
	Victor Robles	171	344	171	344	171	344

Don: So the first step is the relevant splits for each batter. I see players like Trea Turner and Juan Soto get all the starts and others are platooned. We know that won’t happen, but it is a good starting point. We also know that Gomes won’t/can’t get all the starts.

As in our other posts using this approach, the data are the 2019 and 2020 Game Day AtBat data table.

Batter	Against	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
Andrew Stevenson	R	79	66	0.364	0.468	0.606	1.074	24	14	6	2	2	11	21
Carter Kieboom	L	71	60	0.250	0.352	0.367	0.719	15	12	1	0	2	8	23
Cesar Hernandez	L	214	196	0.286	0.336	0.403	0.740	56	39	14	0	3	16	32
	R	719	654	0.278	0.339	0.408	0.748	182	128	37	3	14	54	127
Josh Bell	R	647	560	0.271	0.355	0.527	0.882	152	80	35	3	34	72	127
Josh Harrison	L	77	69	0.275	0.312	0.449	0.761	19	13	3	0	3	3	10
Juan Soto	L	232	191	0.330	0.435	0.592	1.027	63	37	13	2	11	35	33
	R	698	570	0.284	0.411	0.574	0.985	162	82	36	3	41	123	148
Kyle Schwarber	R	717	614	0.243	0.344	0.520	0.864	149	71	31	2	45	92	183
Luis Garcia	R	119	114	0.272	0.303	0.351	0.653	31	26	3	0	2	5	24
Marcus Semien	L	291	255	0.259	0.347	0.486	0.833	66	35	17	1	13	35	44
	R	718	637	0.276	0.358	0.491	0.849	176	104	36	7	29	79	110
Ryan Zimmerman	L	58	53	0.283	0.345	0.566	0.911	15	8	3	0	4	5	13
Starlin Castro	L	206	192	0.292	0.325	0.495	0.820	56	37	7	4	8	10	32
	R	533	504	0.262	0.291	0.415	0.705	132	88	27	1	16	21	92
Trea Turner	L	235	203	0.296	0.383	0.438	0.821	60	40	15	1	4	30	37
	R	671	623	0.305	0.352	0.531	0.883	190	113	41	8	28	41	126
Victor Robles	L	235	204	0.240	0.315	0.368	0.683	49	33	10	2	4	9	51
	R	616	551	0.247	0.312	0.403	0.715	136	87	29	3	17	37	157
Yan Gomes	L	135	115	0.226	0.326	0.417	0.743	26	15	5	1	5	17	25
	R	373	337	0.243	0.311	0.398	0.709	82	52	19	0	11	29	90

Sao: So what really jumps out at me here is Starlin Castro. Those are some massive platoon splits for a player I think we all figure is going to be an everyday guy. And the numbers suggest maybe he should be on the short side of a platoon after all? The free agent options on this table, Cesar Hernandez and Marcus Semien, have negligible splits and probably don’t make sense in a platoon configuration.

Steve: Sao, I’m also intrigued by Carter Kieboom. Would they play him as a bench guy? This will be interesting to see how the final 3 full weeks shakes out before the scheduled start to Spring Training camp opening. FanGraphs had Castro in a reduced role or they expect him to be injured — but now they moved him up I see to 511 plate appearances. It would be nice if there was a lefty infielder who could take some ABs. You’re also correct on some of the players with negligible splits. Their rest days should come on the days when you can get favorable matchups. That is where I want to see this team evolve to.

Don: If Kieboom is not going to start a lot of games, I would like him to spend some time in minors improving his game. I am still cautiously optimistic about his potential.

The 1-8 lineup for Today’s LH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	1,368	1,196	0.274	0.349	0.462	0.811	328	212	58	7	51	126	262
1	Trea Turner	171	148	0.297	0.380	0.446	0.826	44	29	11	1	3	22	27
2	Juan Soto	171	141	0.326	0.433	0.582	1.014	46	27	10	1	8	26	24
3	Ryan Zimmerman	171	156	0.288	0.345	0.577	0.922	45	24	9	0	12	15	38
4	Josh Harrison	171	153	0.281	0.310	0.464	0.774	43	29	7	0	7	7	22
5	Starlin Castro	171	159	0.296	0.327	0.503	0.831	47	31	6	3	7	8	27
6	Carter Kieboom	171	145	0.248	0.351	0.366	0.716	36	29	2	0	5	19	55
7	Yan Gomes	171	146	0.219	0.327	0.397	0.725	32	19	6	1	6	22	32
8	Victor Robles	171	148	0.236	0.316	0.358	0.674	35	24	7	1	3	7	37

Sao: Just based on these numbers, we project like we’re going to do damage against left-handed starters. The bottom of the order is anemic, and we could obviously use another bat to lengthen the lineup, but we already knew that.

Steve: That’s the Davey “back of the napkin lineup” probably with Zim and JHay subbed in. As mentioned, FanGraphs thinks this lineup will score the most runs in the NL East. They did take it from 5.02 runs per game to 5.00 and today to 5.05 after tinkering with the Zim addition. Back to 83 wins and a team WAR of 32.7. It is a bouncing ball to follow all of their tweaks. So FanGraphs clearly likes the Nats offense over the Nats starting pitching and I feel the opposite. I would feel much better if you gave me Justin Turner or Marcus Semien on the high-end or Cesar Hernandez or Tommy La Stella on the low-end of the payroll spectrum.

Don: I have done some data modeling using regression analysis, and based on the models I have looked at so far, around 5 runs per game seems pretty much spot-on. I assume FanGraphs has better and more complete data than I do, so I feel good about their runs per game projections.

The 1-8 lineup for Today’s RH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	4,104	3,666	0.270	0.341	0.467	0.808	989	608	201	18	162	371	886
1	Trea Turner	513	476	0.303	0.351	0.525	0.876	144	86	31	6	21	31	96
2	Juan Soto	513	419	0.282	0.411	0.568	0.979	118	60	26	2	30	90	109
3	Josh Bell	513	444	0.270	0.355	0.525	0.880	120	63	28	2	27	57	101
4	Kyle Schwarber	513	439	0.241	0.345	0.515	0.860	106	51	22	1	32	66	131
5	Starlin Castro	513	485	0.262	0.290	0.412	0.703	127	85	26	1	15	20	89
6	Luis Garcia	513	491	0.273	0.302	0.354	0.657	134	112	13	0	9	22	103
7	Yan Gomes	513	463	0.244	0.312	0.397	0.709	113	72	26	0	15	40	124
8	Andrew Stevenson	169	141	0.362	0.467	0.596	1.063	51	30	13	4	4	24	45
	Victor Robles	344	308	0.247	0.311	0.399	0.710	76	49	16	2	9	21	88

Sao: This is…less good. Especially when you consider Robles is almost certainly not going to start the season ceding this much playing time to Stevenson, especially given that he actually has modest reverse splits, and Garcia probably isn’t going to platoon with Kieboom with the Nats wanting both of their young infielders to get regular reps. The topline numbers can lie to you; going down the lineup, this is a starting eight/nine that’s really going to struggle to get anything going south of the cleanup spot. I’ve been thinking like Bo Porter, that Mike Rizzo still needs a big right-handed bat, but these numbers really suggest the Nats match up well against the few lefty starters they’ll see in 2021 and are going to be exposed by the much more numerous righty starters.

Don: Yes, we have the right Garcia in there. However the Baseball Reference linker linked the wrong guy. I have fixed that. But the numbers are the Nats Luis Garcia. Good catch Steve.

Steve: Thanks for fixing that! If Andrew Stevenson can step up that would be HUGE!

The 1-8 lineup With Hernandez LH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	1,368	1,208	0.278	0.347	0.464	0.812	336	214	67	7	48	120	233
1	Trea Turner	171	148	0.297	0.380	0.446	0.826	44	29	11	1	3	22	27
2	Juan Soto	171	141	0.326	0.433	0.582	1.014	46	27	10	1	8	26	24
3	Ryan Zimmerman	171	156	0.288	0.345	0.577	0.922	45	24	9	0	12	15	38
4	Starlin Castro	171	159	0.296	0.327	0.503	0.831	47	31	6	3	7	8	27
5	Josh Harrison	171	153	0.281	0.310	0.464	0.774	43	29	7	0	7	7	22
6	Cesar Hernandez	171	157	0.280	0.339	0.389	0.728	44	31	11	0	2	13	26
7	Yan Gomes	171	146	0.219	0.327	0.397	0.725	32	19	6	1	6	22	32
8	Victor Robles	171	148	0.236	0.316	0.358	0.674	35	24	7	1	3	7	37

Sao: I don’t think it will surprise anyone that I’m rather bearish on Kieboom, but even still, this isn’t a huge difference versus the previous lineup.

Steve: Fangraphs is bullish on Kieboom. Not as much as before but they still think he will progress to be a good player. I’m bearish on Kieboom until he proves he can do it in the MLB. He is a great kid with a very good minor league record. I am rooting for him to put it together.  I see a kid who gets into the batter’s box in MLB games and looks like he doesn’t have a plan. His power was non-existent in 2020 and I worry about his plate coverage in the outer-third of the plate but also inside. He kills balls over the middle of the plate as he should. If I take out the middle and upper middle of the plate where he is getting his hits, he is batting .123 in all other zones. So pitch him extreme-in or outside and don’t miss in the middle. That is too many holes for a Major League batter.

Don: I am a bit more optimistic on Kieboom for the simple reason that he has shown he gets better the second and third time he sees the same pitcher in a game. I see that as a sign that he is learning. Regardless, I would like to see him get more time in the minors.

The 1-8 lineup With Hernandez RH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	4,104	3,642	0.270	0.346	0.474	0.820	984	587	214	20	163	388	874
1	Trea Turner	513	476	0.303	0.351	0.525	0.876	144	86	31	6	21	31	96
2	Juan Soto	513	419	0.282	0.411	0.568	0.979	118	60	26	2	30	90	109
3	Josh Bell	513	444	0.270	0.355	0.525	0.880	120	63	28	2	27	57	101
4	Kyle Schwarber	513	439	0.241	0.345	0.515	0.860	106	51	22	1	32	66	131
5	Starlin Castro	513	485	0.262	0.290	0.412	0.703	127	85	26	1	15	20	89
6	Cesar Hernandez	513	467	0.276	0.339	0.405	0.744	129	91	26	2	10	39	91
7	Yan Gomes	513	463	0.244	0.312	0.397	0.709	113	72	26	0	15	40	124
8	Andrew Stevenson	169	141	0.362	0.467	0.596	1.063	51	30	13	4	4	24	45
	Victor Robles	344	308	0.247	0.311	0.399	0.710	76	49	16	2	9	21	88

Sao: My feeling is any value the Nats get from signing Cesar Hernandez — who is a dirt dog, a scrappy guy I’ve always respected — is going to be largely on the defensive end. But no question that based on these numbers, he makes the lineup a little longer, and that could go a long way. Although I think it’s an open question as to whether the Nats would get more use out from bumping Garcia out of this go-to lineup, or Castro.

Steve: I like what I expect on Cesar Hernandez to be an overlooked bargain. I love the defense. I love the speed that if you bat him 7th or 8th with Robles just puts ridiculous speed on the basepaths before Trea comes up to bat. Hernandez is a +1.9 WAR guy who does things that don’t show up on paper. Yes, it shifts Starlin Castro to 3rd base where he surprisingly is better in his defense comparatively in that 2019 season. So maybe we just made the entire infield defense better???

Don: Hernandez is a good option. I look forward to seeing what Rizzo does.

The 1-8 lineup With Semien LH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	1,368	1,201	0.276	0.348	0.480	0.828	332	204	66	8	54	128	233
1	Trea Turner	171	148	0.297	0.380	0.446	0.826	44	29	11	1	3	22	27
2	Juan Soto	171	141	0.326	0.433	0.582	1.014	46	27	10	1	8	26	24
3	Ryan Zimmerman	171	156	0.288	0.345	0.577	0.922	45	24	9	0	12	15	38
4	Marcus Semien	171	150	0.267	0.345	0.507	0.852	40	21	10	1	8	21	26
5	Starlin Castro	171	159	0.296	0.327	0.503	0.831	47	31	6	3	7	8	27
6	Josh Harrison	171	153	0.281	0.310	0.464	0.774	43	29	7	0	7	7	22
7	Yan Gomes	171	146	0.219	0.327	0.397	0.725	32	19	6	1	6	22	32
8	Victor Robles	171	148	0.236	0.316	0.358	0.674	35	24	7	1	3	7	37

Sao: This lineup would really, really, really crush left-handers. I mean, we knew that, but seeing it laid out like this is dramatic. The question is whether spending whatever payroll space the Nats have left to go from being very good against lefties to being stupendous against lefties is the best use of those dollars. Maybe, if only to see if the Mets can set another new record for most runs given up in a game started by Steven Matz…

Steve: There are no holes there. I think Harrison in this new role will be even better knowing he is just a platoon guy. Get Robles going and woof woof this lineup will frustrate the lefties.

Don: I am not sure that Semien is an option, but I agree with both of you.

The 1-8 lineup With Semien RH Starter

#	Batter	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Hit	Sngl	Dbl	Trpl	HR	BB	SO
	—Total—	4,104	3,630	0.270	0.348	0.486	0.834	981	570	214	23	174	405	862
1	Trea Turner	513	476	0.303	0.351	0.525	0.876	144	86	31	6	21	31	96
2	Juan Soto	513	419	0.282	0.411	0.568	0.979	118	60	26	2	30	90	109
3	Marcus Semien	513	455	0.277	0.359	0.495	0.853	126	74	26	5	21	56	79
4	Josh Bell	513	444	0.270	0.355	0.525	0.880	120	63	28	2	27	57	101
5	Kyle Schwarber	513	439	0.241	0.345	0.515	0.860	106	51	22	1	32	66	131
6	Starlin Castro	513	485	0.262	0.290	0.412	0.703	127	85	26	1	15	20	89
7	Yan Gomes	513	463	0.244	0.312	0.397	0.709	113	72	26	0	15	40	124
8	Andrew Stevenson	169	141	0.362	0.467	0.596	1.063	51	30	13	4	4	24	45
	Victor Robles	344	308	0.247	0.311	0.399	0.710	76	49	16	2	9	21	88

Sao: No doubt that adding Semien gives us a lot more “bop” than adding Hernandez. But that choice isn’t made in a vacuum. Lengthening the lineup of guys projecting to an .800+ OPS against right-handed starters, though, really would be huge. That pencils out to a lot more innings with legitimate run-scoring opportunities.

Steve: Semien was a superstar in 2019. If that was an outlier, which some GMs fear, he will be a slightly above average player. You know what you got in Cesar Hernandez. A guy to give you length in the back of the lineup and coach up. In Cesar’s career, and this might shock you, as a #7 batter he has batted .314 in his career with a .388 (YES) OBP in 328 plate appearances. That is where I bat him unless you decide to lengthen the lineup by batting him 2nd where is numbers are almost as good.

Sao: Not to give you more work to do, but it would be interesting to see how Tommy La Stella compares.

Don: Ask and ye shall receive. Seriously, I have spent my entire career as a consultant dealing with the yeah but can you do X.  As a result now that I have the programs in place, doing another lineup is just a matter of cutting/pasting the into the program I wrote and pushing a button to create the tables.

La Stella’s Splits

Positions With La Stella LH Starter

Positions With La Stella RH Starter

Don: Great suggestion to look at La Stella Sao. Based on a quick look, he adds more value than Hernandez and is comparable to Semien – but likely more affordable.

Sao: It looks like the Nats as constructed are already going to handle lefties, assuming Zimmerman can stay healthy and Castro comes back all right from his injury. So even if La Stella vs. Kieboom in the go-to lineup after lefties is a push (as the numbers suggest), the added value against righties is tremendous. He doesn’t have as much power as Semien, obviously, but the Nats are going to be relying on their hairy-chested sluggers to supply power. My concern with the roster as it’s built now, if Rizzo stands pat, is that it won’t be able to keep the line moving and will therefore minimize the RBI opportunities for the top of the order. Seems like adding La Stella would go a long way toward addressing that. A .370 OBP against right-handed starters is rarified air.

Steve: I think I’d rather have La Stella or Cesar Hernandez to add to the pressure on RH pitchers. Both would be upgrades. Who costs less and who would Rizzo want?