Photo courtesy of Andrew Lang for TalkNats
It was a good request from stever20 to produce a chart of FanGraphs pre-season WAR vs. the actual numbers for the Washington Nationals players. Some of the numbers are what you probably expected while some were very disappointing. All in all, the Nats were over -9.0 WAR below the original estimate.
Much of the shortfall in WAR was from injuries and time missed, and some of it was from poor showings by the player. This is certainly open for analysis.
Name |
Pos |
PA |
IP |
Total WAR (Actual) |
Total WAR (Projected) |
+/- |
| Trea Turner | SS | 259 | 2.708 | 1.40 | 1.31 | |
| Juan Soto | LF/RF | 196 | 2.429 | 1.90 | 0.53 | |
| Max Scherzer | P | 67.1 | 1.843 | 2.00 | -0.16 | |
| Patrick Corbin | P | 65.2 | 1.202 | 1.50 | -0.30 | |
| Andrew Stevenson | RF/LF/CF | 47 | 0.826 | 0.00 | 0.83 | |
| Wander Suero | P | 23.2 | 0.521 | 0.10 | 0.42 | |
| Kyle Finnegan | P | 24.2 | 0.338 | 0.00 | 0.34 | |
| Tanner Rainey | P | 20.1 | 0.263 | 0.10 | 0.16 | |
| Josh Harrison | 2B/3B/OF | 91 | 0.246 | NA | 0.25 | |
| Yan Gomes | C | 119 | 0.243 | 0.40 | -0.16 | |
| Anibal Sanchez | P | 53 | 0.199 | 0.40 | -0.20 | |
| Ben Braymer | P | 7.1 | 0.172 | 0.00 | 0.17 | |
| Kyle McGowin | P | 11 | 0.115 | 0.00 | 0.12 | |
| Will Harris | P | 17.2 | 0.090 | 0.50 | -0.41 | |
| Paolo Espino | P | 6 | 0.081 | 0.00 | 0.08 | |
| Brock Holt | LF/IF/P | 70 | 0.122 | NA | 0.12 | |
| Javy Guerra | P | 15.2 | 0.051 | 0.00 | 0.05 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | P | 5 | 0.047 | 1.90 | -1.85 | |
| Sam Freeman | P | 5 | 0.007 | 0.00 | 0.01 | |
| Kurt Suzuki | C | 129 | 0.005 | 0.20 | -0.19 | |
| Starlin Castro | 2B | 63 | 0.001 | 0.50 | -0.50 | |
| Jake Noll | 1B | 17 | -0.003 | -0.10 | 0.10 | |
| Ryne Harper | P | 23.2 | -0.012 | 0.00 | -0.01 | |
| Aaron Barrett | P | 1.2 | -0.024 | 0.00 | -0.02 | |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 1B/3B | 213 | -0.043 | 0.30 | -0.34 | |
| Dakota Bacus | P | 11.1 | -0.049 | 0.00 | -0.05 | |
| Seth Romero | P | 2.2 | -0.091 | 0.00 | -0.09 | |
| Emilio Bonifacio | LF | 3 | -0.117 | 0.00 | -0.12 | |
| Wilmer Difo | 2B/SS | 18 | -0.145 | 0.00 | -0.14 | |
| Yadiel Hernandez | DH/OF | 28 | -0.146 | 0.00 | -0.15 | |
| James Bourque | P | 4 | -0.154 | 0.00 | -0.15 | |
| Austin Voth | P | 49.2 | -0.197 | 0.50 | -0.70 | |
| Sean Doolittle | P | 7.2 | -0.247 | 0.30 | -0.55 | |
| Carter Kieboom | 3B | 122 | -0.256 | 0.70 | -0.96 | |
| Erick Fedde | P | 50.1 | -0.264 | 0.30 | -0.56 | |
| Howie Kendrick | DH | 100 | -0.330 | 0.40 | -0.73 | |
| Michael A. Taylor | RF/CF/LF | 99 | -0.332 | 0.00 | -0.33 | |
| Daniel Hudson | P | 20.2 | -0.392 | 0.20 | -0.59 | |
| Luis Garcia | 2B/SS | 139 | -0.411 | 0.00 | -0.41 | |
| Wil Crowe | P | 8.1 | -0.462 | 0.00 | -0.46 | |
| Adam Eaton | RF | 176 | -0.467 | 0.80 | -1.27 | |
| Victor Robles | CF | 189 | -0.486 | 0.90 | -1.39 | |
| Eric Thames | 1B/DH | 140 | -0.688 | 0.30 | -0.99 | |
| TOTALS | 6.195 | 15.50 | -9.31 |
The Nationals were projected to be at 33-27 and finish at first place in the NL East. If you take the 33 wins and subtract a -9.31 WAR then maybe the team over-achieved at 26 actual wins. While WAR won’t exactly equate to wins and losses, FanGraphs uses run differential because that is how you win games by outscoring your opponent.
So where did the Nats finish in runs scored? 293 ÷ 60 = 4.93 Runs allowed? 301 ÷ 60 = 5.02 And run differential? -8 That run differential would have put the Nats at a 29-31 record. With the Nats going 7-9 in one-run games, that could be the difference along with a little bad luck. Also, the Nats had several blowouts which certainly will skew the run differential.
Fangraphs chart
