Time to update our post from last week, 27 Games Left and Counting Down to the #Nats in the Post-Season.
The Nationals have 19 games left in the regular season and their Magic Number to win the division is 11 after today’s games.
There is another, more important, Magic Number to consider. And that number is 16 – the Magic Number to home field advantage in the National League Division Series.
Magic Number to NLDS home field is 16
Magic Number to NL East is 11
The lead to win the NL East is now 11 games. After last Sunday night’s loss to the Mets, the lead was 8.5 games. Yes, that is correct – the Nats gained ground on the Mets.
Let us put the lead in perspective. Even if the Mets go on a torrid streak and both sweep the Nats and then play .750 baseball in their remaining 16 games, they would end up with 91 wins. To beat that, the Nats would only have to win 7 of their other 16 games. And with another one of Section222’s 18 gamers coming up, permit me to remind you that the Nats do not have a losing record in any of the 18-gamers so far this season.
With respect to the race to have home field advantage for the NLDS, the Dodgers again lost ground to the Nats. Last week our projections had the Nats at 94 wins, and the Dodgers at 89 and the Giants at 87. This week the numbers are getting better: 96 for the Nats and 90 for the Dodgers; with the Giants still sitting at at a projection at 87.
And just like last week, not losing ground, let alone gaining a little ground, in the race for the NL East and still having the advantage of home field in the NLDS is a very good thing – as each day’s games go by, not giving up any ground to the teams chasing the Nats makes it that much harder on them.
The race for the Wild Card berths is becoming a 3-team race between the Giants, Cardinals and the Mets. While the Marlins and the Pirates are still mathematially alive, their chances are pretty slim.
So lets take a look at the remaining schedules for these teams.
| OPPONENT | PCT | WSH | MIA | NYM | SF | LAD | CHC | STL | PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | .408 | 4 | . | . | . | 4 | . | . | . |
| ATL | .385 | 3 | 7 | 3 | . | . | . | . | . |
| CHC* | .638 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 6 | 4 |
| CIN | .423 | . | . | . | . | . | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| COL | .483 | . | . | . | 3 | 4 | . | 3 | . |
| HOU* | .528 | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | . | . |
| LAD | .563 | . | . | . | 6 | . | . | . | . |
| MIA | .497 | 6 | . | 3 | . | . | . | . | . |
| MIL | .448 | . | . | . | . | . | 4 | . | 3 |
| MIN | .371 | . | . | 3 | . | . | . | . | . |
| NYM | .531 | 3 | 3 | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| NYY | .535 | . | . | . | . | 3 | . | . | . |
| PHL | .441 | . | 3 | 7 | . | . | . | . | 4 |
| PIT | .489 | 3 | . | . | . | . | 4 | 3 | . |
| SD | .413 | . | . | . | 7 | 3 | . | . | . |
| SF | .542 | . | . | . | . | 6 | . | 4 | . |
| STL | .580 | . | . | . | 4 | . | 6 | . | 3 |
| WSH | .594 | . | 6 | 3 | . | . | . | . | 3 |
*Not Updated for the ESPN Sunday Night Game
Just as we did last week and the week before, lets collapse this table to show how many games each of these teams have left against teams that are above/below .500 so far this year.
Note that the only games that the Nationals and the Mets have left against teams that are at or above .500 are the next three games where they play each other.
| TEAM | Below .500 | Above .500 |
|---|---|---|
| CHC* | 14 | 7 |
| LAD | 11 | 9 |
| MIA | 10 | 9 |
| NYM | 16 | 3 |
| PIT | 11 | 10 |
| SF | 10 | 10 |
| STL | 10 | 10 |
| WSH | 16 | 3 |
*Not Updated for the ESPN Sunday Night Game
And just as we did before, lets calculate a weighted average of the winning percentage for the opponents of these teams and use that percentage to project the total number of wins by the end of the season. Clearly, lots of assumptions here. And since all of these teams are all above .500, this might be an underestimate.
Unlike the table above which is ordered alphabetically by the team acronym, this one is ordered by the total number of projected wins (most wins to least wins).
| TEAM | Below .500 | Above .500 | Opponent Weighted Win % | WINS | PROJECTED | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC* | 14 | 7 | .490 | 90 | 10.7 | 101 |
| WSH | 16 | 3 | .465 | 85 | 10.2 | 95 |
| LAD | 11 | 9 | .483 | 80 | 10.3 | 90 |
| SF | 10 | 10 | .502 | 77 | 10.0 | 87 |
| NYM | 16 | 3 | .454 | 76 | 10.4 | 86 |
| STL | 10 | 10 | .530 | 75 | 9.4 | 84 |
| MIA | 10 | 9 | .483 | 71 | 9.8 | 81 |
| PIT | 11 | 10 | .518 | 69 | 10.1 | 79 |
*Not Updated for the ESPN Sunday Night Game
The big picture view still suggests that the Cubs and the Nationals are pretty much a lock to win their respective divisions and hopefully meet in the NLCS.
Bottom line is that the Nats are in great shape for the post-season.
Before closing, let’s revisit the upcoming series against the Mets. Winning just one of those three games means the Magic Number to win the NL East will be single digits (9) with 16 games left. And a sweep would bring that number down to 5. The bad news is that the Nationals are almost certainly going to win the Division on the road as they begin a 9 game road trip after the Mets series before returning home for their remaining 7 games (4 against the Diamondbacks and 3 against the Marlins).
But as we all know, and have said in each of the prior counting down posts, there is a reason they actually play the games!
